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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Interest payments look set to be about £37B higher in 2022/23 than the OBR forecast in March.
So the next PM will have to borrow more this year than last to have a fighting chance of averting a recession.
We expect Ms. Truss to unveil tax cuts and extra grants worth an extra £20B this year, and £44B in 2023/24.
Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.
October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...
...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.
The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.
The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.
Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.
Dave Ramsden is the first MPC member to admit rates might need to be cut "quite quickly" in the medium term.
The cuts currently priced-in by markets from late H2 2023 aren't big enough to lower households' interest bill.
But CPI inflation won't be near the target until Q4 2023; pre-election fiscal stimulus will limit the scope for easing.
House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Accrued debt interest looks set to top the OBR’s forecast by £21B this year, and £15B in the medium term...
...This leaves insufficient headroom for Ms. Truss to de- liver her tax cuts and still run a balanced current budget.
Labour supply has not been hit by April’s increase in NI contributions; reversing it won't be self-funding.
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