Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 Sept 2021 House Prices Should Recover Steadily in 2022 after Q4's Fall

  • Year-over-year growth in house prices slowed in July, following the tapering of government support.
  • Expect a further slowdown in Q4, when the SDLT threshold will return to £125K and real incomes will fall.
  • The outlook for 2022, however, is brighter; falling mortgage rates and tight supply will support prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 July 2021 Insolvencies Will Rise as Support is Withdrawn, But Not to 2008 Levels

Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2021 Households' Wealth hasn't Soared, Despite Recent Cash Hoarding

The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 June 2021 Which Measures of Underlying Inflation will the MPC Track?

With CPI inflation edging above the MPC's 2% target in May and set to approach 3% later this year. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 June 2021 Scottish House Price Data Provide a Glimpse of Life after the SDLT Holiday

April's official house price data show how strongly the market has been influenced by the temporary increase in the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax to £500K, from £125K.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2021 Rising Employment Won't Box the MPC into a Corner on Rates

It remains our view that employment and wages will not rise rapidly enough over the 18 months to prompt the MPC to hike Bank Rate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 June 2021 A Blockbuster Labour Market Report for April?

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that the unemployment rate fell further in April, though not quite as rapidly as implied by recent business surveys.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 May 2021 What will Follow Households' Summer Spending Spree?

Financial markets are relatively upbeat on the outlook for British retailers. The FTSE All-Share Retailers Index closed last week 27% above its 2019 average, greatly outperforming the total FTSE All- Share Index, which has only just recovered to its 2019 level.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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