Pantheon Macroeconomics

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8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Mar 2021 19:00U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR's new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2021 03:13U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

11 Feb 2021 The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

8 Feb 2021 GDP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

DP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

3 Feb 2021 The £185B Question: Will Households Spend their Cash Hoard?

The £185B Question: Will Households Spend their Cash Hoard?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Jan 2021 Public Borrowing Set to Hit £400B this Year, Despite Recent Trends

The public finances are in worse shape than the latest borrowing numbers indicate. For now, the ONS estimates that borrowing on the main "PSNB ex."

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

8 Jan 2021 The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

5 Jan 2021 Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:34U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

26 Nov 2020 The Fiscal Repair Job will be Bigger than the OBR's Forecasts Imply

The OBR's new forecasts for public borrowing likely understate the scale of the necessary future fiscal consolidation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

19 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Won't Breach 2% in 2021

The pick-up in CPI inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5% in September, does not mark the start of a sustained uptrend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

12 Nov 2020 The Boost to GDP from Post-Covid Dis-Saving will be Slow Burning

Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

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