Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

surveys

29 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: MPC Caught Between Higher Inflation and Omicron

  • Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
  • The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
  • The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Nov 2021 Exports are Still in the Doldrums; Brexit Clearly is to Blame

  • U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
  • It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
  • Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

12 Nov 2021 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Leaves the U.K. as the G7's Straggler Again

  • U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
  • Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
  • Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2021 Is it Already Clear the End of the Furlough Scheme has been Painless?

  • Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
  • Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
  • October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Nov 2021 September GDP will Give the MPC Further Pause for Thought

  • We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
  • Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
  • Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: Rate Hikes Loom Closer, But Not This Week

  • The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
  • Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
  • We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2021 September's CPI Data will be the Calm Before the Storm

  • CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
  • Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
  • ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Oct 2021 Recovery Sluggish Even Prior to the Withdrawal of Fiscal Support

  • August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
  • Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
  • We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Sept 2021 Underlying Wage Growth will Slow, Easing the Pressure on the MPC

  • The ONS estimates that underlying year-over-year growth in wages was between 3.6% and 5.1% in July...
  • ...We expect an increase in labour market slack, post-furlough, to push this rate down to about 3.2%.
  • Employers will pass on higher NICs rates to staff, while public sector pay will rise only modestly next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Aug 2021 Labour Shortages will be a Long- Lasting Constraint on GDP

  • Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
  • Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
  • The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2021 Furlough Usage isn't Falling Fast Enough to Signal a Painless End in Q4

The proportion of staff furloughed fell to 5.7% at the end of June, from 7.5% a month earlier...
...But surveys point to only a marginal fall in early July, and still high usage in fully recovered sectors.
Firms likely won't fully relinquish recent productivity gains; the employment rate will drop back in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.

The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.

Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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