Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: Demand still falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Jubilee-Linked Drop in June GDP to Obscure the Economy's Pulse

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: Resilience of order books suggests sector still some way from recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: Underlying trend in output likely flat, despite the resilience of the PMI.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: The mix of falling demand and high stock levels points to lower production and falling output price inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 July 2022 UK Monitor Active Gilt Sales Likely will be at the Low End of Bailey's Proposed Range

The BoE is considering active gilt sales that would result in a reduction in the APF of £50B-to-£100B in year one.

This implies active sales of £15B-to-£65B if they begin in Q4; we expect sales at the lower end of that range.

The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retailers’ stock levels are far too high; discounting will intensify.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July & Q3

  • In one line: Q3 will be a false dawn for retailers. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July & Q3

  • In one line: Consistent with an imminent slowing in producer price inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2022 Reviving Workforce Growth Eases the Pressure for Large Rate Hikes

The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.

So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.

The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2022 The Plunge in Commodity Prices has Improved the 2023 Inflation Outlook

June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.

But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.

Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, June 2022

  • In one line: The survey’s signal of steady growth in Q2 shouldn’t be trusted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June

  • In one line: Consistent with an imminent slowing in producer price inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2022 The Trade Deficit is On Course to be the Largest Since the Mid-Seventies

The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.

Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.

We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 June 2022 Stable Wage Growth and a Reviving Workforce will Cheer the MPC

Year-over-year growth in private-sector wages slowed to 4.7% in April, slightly below the MPC’s 4.8% forecast.

The job market no longer is tightening, as the workforce recovers and growth in employment starts to slow.

We still expect the workforce to recover further, anchoring wage growth and easing the pressure for rate hikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey, May

  • In one line: Long-term inflation expectations remain no higher than in the late 2010s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, May 2022

  • In one line: The recovery is slowing, but the chances of a renewed downturn in output are slim. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence