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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.
GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.
Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.
House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The BoE is considering active gilt sales that would result in a reduction in the APF of £50B-to-£100B in year one.
This implies active sales of £15B-to-£65B if they begin in Q4; we expect sales at the lower end of that range.
The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retailers’ stock levels are far too high; discounting will intensify.
The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.
So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.
The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.
June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.
But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.
Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.
The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.
Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.
We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.
Year-over-year growth in private-sector wages slowed to 4.7% in April, slightly below the MPC’s 4.8% forecast.
The job market no longer is tightening, as the workforce recovers and growth in employment starts to slow.
We still expect the workforce to recover further, anchoring wage growth and easing the pressure for rate hikes.
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