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- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
- ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
- A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- Capex failed to pick up at all in Q3, as firms struggled to get their hands on transport equipment.
- Firms, however, appear keen to invest and have the financial resources, so a rebound remains likely.
- We expect capex to rise by about 10% in 2022 and 4% in 2023, eventually returning to 2019's level.
- MPC members Bailey and Pill are sitting on the fence, despite last week's upside data surprises.
- In a weekend paper interview, the Governor highlighted the public sector's role in driving the recovery.
- We put the odds of a December rate hike at 60%, well below the 80-to-90% range priced by markets.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
- Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
- Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
- October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- On balance, we still think the MPC won't act next month; Mr. Bailey hinted October's labour data may not suffice.
- The MPC's inflation forecasts seemingly support markets' view that rates will rise to 1.0% by the end of 2022...
- ...But they are based on implausible energy price figures; its spare capacity forecasts point to a lower rate path.
- Households continued in September to save more and borrow less than they did before Covid.
- The recovery in spending will continue only if households save less in response to falling real incomes...
- Households did this in 2016, but are less confident now, despite having a larger precautionary buffer.
- Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
- Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
- Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.
- The OBR likely will revise smaller its "scarring" estimate only to 2.5% of GDP, from 3.0% previously.
- The resulting uplift to future tax revenues will be offset by higher projections for interest payments.
- Mr. Sunak will have little, if any, headroom in meeting his target for a balanced current budget in three years' time.
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
- The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
- Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
- Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.
- Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
- Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
- ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.
- Revisions to Q2 GDP data brightened the picture of the economy's recent trade performance...
- ...But Brexit still is preventing U.K. exporters from benefiting fully from the upswing in global trade.
- The return of the structural deficit in services trade will cause net trade to weigh on GDP growth in 2022.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.
- The shortfall in GDP in July from its pre-Covid peak has been revised to just 1.3%, from 2.5% previously.
- Future growth, however, will be weak; both government spending and households' incomes will fall...
- ...So the MPC can take its time; we now expect a Q2 rate rise, but then a 12-month delay until the next hike.
- Households continued to add to their stock of savings at a faster rate in August than before Covid.
- Unsecured lending rose only modestly too; lower confi- dence in September points to still-subdued spending.
- Surging energy prices mean we are lifting our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, from 3.2% two weeks ago.