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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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PAYE data, vacancy figures and business surveys all suggest employment growth slowed in June and July.
Labour supply, however, is picking up; the unemployment rate likely was marginally higher in Q2 than in Q1.
Wages likely continued to rise in June at a rate inconsistent with the inflation target, but probably didn't speed up.
The MPC currently expects the unemployment rate to remain well below 4% until Q3 2023...
...But timely indicators suggest demand for labour already is cooling, just as supply is starting to recover.
We expect the unemployment rate to rise above 4% before year-end, keeping a lid on wages and rate hikes.
OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.
The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.
Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.
Year-over-year growth in private-sector wages slowed to 4.7% in April, slightly below the MPC’s 4.8% forecast.
The job market no longer is tightening, as the workforce recovers and growth in employment starts to slow.
We still expect the workforce to recover further, anchoring wage growth and easing the pressure for rate hikes.
Higher energy prices and tax rises pushed up the headline rate of CPI inflation to a 40-year high in April.
But there were encouraging signs that retailers are starting to absorb some of the surge in producer prices.
Inflation will ease over the summer as base effects kick in and the real income squeeze inhibits services price rises.
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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence