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Sterling's rally has been driven by the elimination of the fiscal risk premium, which we doubt will return...
...But the current account deficit will remain large next year, despite the recession, leaving sterling vulnerable.
The MPC likely will hold back from raising Bank Rate as far as markets expect; we look for $1.15 in the spring.
Sterling has dropped, despite a sharp rise in Bank Rate expectations, because expected inflation has soared.
But the MPC will have flexibility if, as we expect, core inflation falls, boosting the expected real rate.
We expect the U.S. Fed to be more cautious than investors expect, easing some of the pressure on the MPC.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.
The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.
Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.
The trade deficit has hit a record share of GDP over the last two quarters, but it will only get worse.
Goods imports will fall, as firms now have excess stock, but the value of energy imports will surge this winter.
The U.K.'s shortfall in exports relative to 2018 remains the largest in the G7; Brexit is largely to blame.
The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.
But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.
Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.
CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...
...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.
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