U.K. Documents

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2023

In one line: A return to sustained growth isn’t likely yet, given the outlook for housebuilding.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, February 2023

In one line: GDP probably fell in Q1, despite the rise in the composite PMI.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2023

In one line: The downturn in the manufacturing sector is easing.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, January 2023

In one line: The downturn progresses; the upturn in builders’ optimism looks premature.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, January 2023

In one line: Still consistent with a mild recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, January 2023

In one line: The downturn is slowing, but is not over yet.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, December 2022

In one line: Builders move to reduce employment, mirroring trends in the wider economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, December 2022

In one line: Firms now are reducing employment as the economy falls into recession.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, December 2022

In one line: A recession already is afoot, forcing manufacturers to fire staff and slow price rises.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, November 2022

In one line: Builders are rightly pessimistic about the 2023 outlook.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, November 2022

In one line: Still consistent with recession, but price rises haven’t slowed enough for the MPC to relax yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2022

In one line: The manufacturing sector likely is in recession.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

15 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Brace for an Above-Consensus CPI Inflation Print for October

We look for an above-consensus jump in CPI inflation to 10.9% in October, from 10.2% in September.
Food prices continued to rise quickly and energy prices soared; core CPI inflation likely remained high too.
The BRC’s non-food shop prices index leapt; services inflation likely was supported by education and rents.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, October 2022

In one line: Easing supply constraints are enabling output to keep rising; the 2023 outlook is bleak.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, October 2022

In one line: No significant let up in price rises yet.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October 2022

In one line: A recession in the manufacturing sector is afoot.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

25 Oct 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Show a Deepening Downturn, but Price Rises Remain too Rapid

October’s PMI data point to a worsening recession; a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q4 GDP looks likely.
Price rises are slowing, but remain too brisk for the MPC to take breath; we look for a 75bp hike next week.
Further falls in interest rate expectations will weigh on sterling now the fiscal credibility gap has largely gone.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.