Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
- ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
- A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
The fast rollout of boosters has reduced U.K. hospital admissions, whereas they are surging across Europe.
Economic contagion for the U.K. in the event of fresh restrictions in the rest of Europe should be modest.
Manufacturing output would be unaffected, while the weaker euro will help to lower U.K. CPI inflation in 2022.
- The ONS' BIC survey suggests the recovery stalled in both October and November
- OpenTable figures show that the boom in dining out has faded in November.
- We expect quarter-over-quarter GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in Q4, from 1.5%, and below the consensus, 1.1%
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
- U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
- Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
- Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.
- Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
- The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
- The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.
- Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
- Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
- October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- In one line: Initial evidence on furlough scheme wind-down is tentatively positive, but not reliable enough to prompt a rate hike this week.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- The MPC's view the output gap has closed means it must counter plans for higher government spending.
- But the Committee can wait until 2022 to act; the recovery is faltering, and underlying inflation is not high.
- The MPC will see key jobs data if it waits until December; higher rates are coming, but not just yet.
- Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
- Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
- Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.
- The MPC's preferred measure of underlying services inflation merely matched its 2010s average in September.
- CPI inflation is on course to rise to a peak of about 4.8% in April, from 3.1% in September...
- ...But the rise will be driven largely by higher energy prices; core inflation should remain well-behaved.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
- Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
- Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.
- Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
- November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
- Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.