U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
savings
- Mr. Hunt needs to find £50B in savings by 2025/26 to meet the target of a falling debt ratio in that year.
- We expect a third of that consolidation to come in 2023/24; gilt investors will want some upfront progress.
- Spending cuts will bear more of the strain in the long term, but Mr. Hunt likely will reimpose the NI hike in April.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The new Chancellor’s quick actions have reduced the outlook for public borrowing in 2025/26 by £35B...
- ...But he needs to find at least £39B more savings to ensure the debt-to-GDP ratio is falling in three years’ time.
- CPI inflation likely increased to 10.1% in September, from 9.9% in August, slightly above the consensus, 10.0%.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Households have not materially depleted the additional savings they accumulated during the pandemic, yet.
- In real terms, excess savings no longer look impressive, and the distribution has worsened over the last year.
- Households likely will increasingly use savings to pay off debt, in response to the jump in mortgage rates.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
- Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
- Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
- Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
- We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
