Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


10 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Autumn Statement Preview: Austerity Measures Likely to Kick In Next Year

  • Mr. Hunt needs to find £50B in savings by 2025/26 to meet the target of a falling debt ratio in that year.
  • We expect a third of that consolidation to come in 2023/24; gilt investors will want some upfront progress.
  • Spending cuts will bear more of the strain in the long term, but Mr. Hunt likely will reimpose the NI hike in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2022 UK Monitor The Chancellor has Picked the Low-Hanging Fruit; Further Cuts will Hurt

  • The new Chancellor’s quick actions have reduced the outlook for public borrowing in 2025/26 by £35B...
  • ...But he needs to find at least £39B more savings to ensure the debt-to-GDP ratio is falling in three years’ time.
  • CPI inflation likely increased to 10.1% in September, from 9.9% in August, slightly above the consensus, 10.0%.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Will Households Ever Deplete their Excess Savings Meaningfully

  • Households have not materially depleted the additional savings they accumulated during the pandemic, yet.
  • In real terms, excess savings no longer look impressive, and the distribution has worsened over the last year.
  • Households likely will increasingly use savings to pay off debt, in response to the jump in mortgage rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Lifting Our Bank Rate Forecast, Despite a Looming Recession

  • The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
  • Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
  • Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

31 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Government Support Needed to Maintain Real Consumption

  • Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
  • Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
  • We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence