- Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
- ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
- Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Demand remaining strong, despite the stamp duty changes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Prices still rising, despite the end of the SDLT holiday.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Slowing after the first SDLT change, but no hard landing.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Full steam ahead, but not for much longer.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Prices are still surging for now, but they will plateau soon.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
