22 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Stabilisation of Retail Sales in Q4 will Prove to be a False Dawn

• Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
• ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
• A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October 2022

• In one line: The rise in sales in October will prove a false dawn

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October 2022

• In one line: Outlook for retailers remains gloomy.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Retail Sales will Remain on a Downward Trend Next Year

• Retail sales in September were 2.1% below their 2019 average level; don't blame the extra public holiday.
• The support to households' incomes from government policies will rise in Q4, then fall sharply next year.
• Incomes also will be hit in 2023 by mortgage refinancing and job cuts; expect retail sales to keep falling. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, September 2022

• In one line: Drop reflects real income pressures, rather than the extra public holiday.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2022

• In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's Drop in Retail Sales Makes a 50bp Bank Rate Hike More Likely

• The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
• The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
• The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August 2022

• In one line: Weakness likely won’t be sustained, given the additional support from the government. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

13 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Q3 GDP Set to be Unchanged from Q2, Undershooting the MPC's forecast

• June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
• We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
• Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market and Retail Sales Data to Persuade the MPC to be Cautious

• Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
• Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
• BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2022 UK Monitor July GDP to Show the Economy has Slowed, but is Not in Recession Yet

• We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
  GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
• The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
• Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2022

• In one line: Dropping again, despite recent government support measures.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Aug 2022 UK Monitor How Much Longer Can Consumers Hold the Line?

Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.

October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...

...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, July 2022

• In one line: Holding their ground, for now.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July 2022

• In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Jubilee-Linked Drop in June GDP to Obscure the Economy's Pulse

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2022 U.K. Monitor Retail Sales Will Recover in Q3, but this will be a False Dawn

Retail sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, as households reduced big-ticket discretionary purchases.

Real household disposable income looks set to rise in Q3, thanks to government support measures.

But even if Ms. Truss pushes through her tax cuts, incomes will drop back in the winter, impeding sales.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.