Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
- ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
- Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- The ONS' BIC survey suggests the recovery stalled in both October and November
- OpenTable figures show that the boom in dining out has faded in November.
- We expect quarter-over-quarter GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in Q4, from 1.5%, and below the consensus, 1.1%
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- In one line: High street retailers hurt by fuel shortages.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- In one line: Collateral damage from the fuel shortages.
- Furlough scheme usage fell only marginally in August; 4.6% of staff still were furloughed by month-end.
- Furlough rates remain high at small businesses, who lack the financial muscle to bring all staff back.
- We expect only a modest rise in the unemployment rate to 5% in Q4, but a big jump in underemployment.
- Panic-buying of fuel likely will fade soon; no sign yet of shortage fears spreading to food or other goods...
- ...But for a period, people likely will reduce trips to purchase non-essential goods and services.
- The silver lining, however, has been a softening of the government's visa policies; probably more to come.
- The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
- Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
- GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.
- The ONS estimates that underlying year-over-year growth in wages was between 3.6% and 5.1% in July...
- ...We expect an increase in labour market slack, post-furlough, to push this rate down to about 3.2%.
- Employers will pass on higher NICs rates to staff, while public sector pay will rise only modestly next year.
- Public borrowing in August was only slightly below the OBR's forecast; interest payments are picking up.
- We think the OBR will revise its long-term "scarring" estimate only to 2.5%, from 3.0% previously...
- ...The workforce has continued to contract this year, confounding the OBR's hopes of a rebound.
- August's drop in retail sales was broad-based; the recovery in overall spending now is sluggish.
- Real disposable income will drop by 1.5% q/q in Q4, as employment falls, inflation soars, and benefits are cut.
- RHDI will recover in Q1, but then flatline in Q2, in response to the rise in employees' NICs rates.
Markets now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate twice next year, with the first hike as soon as February.
The MPC, however, will focus on labour market slack and the prospects for its elimination, not just inflation.
The recovery has faded, implying many furloughed staff will be underemployed in Q4; the MPC needn't rush.
- In one line: Drop should fuel doubts about how soon the MPC will hike interest rates.
- Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
- The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
- We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.
- The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
- ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.