Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- October's mere 0.1% m/m increase in GDP shows the recovery had little momentum before Omicron.
- GDP was near its pre-Covid level only due to surging health activities; private sector GDP was 2.4% adrift.
- A pullback in consumer services spending will depress GDP over the winter; no rate hike before March.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- The recent fall in hospital admissions suggests that the pandemic was on the retreat in September...
- ...But warmer-than-usual weather and fuel shortages have helped to reduce transmission temporarily.
- The combination of fading vaccine effectiveness and limited booster jab plans suggests Q4 will be worse.
- Panic-buying of fuel likely will fade soon; no sign yet of shortage fears spreading to food or other goods...
- ...But for a period, people likely will reduce trips to purchase non-essential goods and services.
- The silver lining, however, has been a softening of the government's visa policies; probably more to come.
- August's drop in retail sales was broad-based; the recovery in overall spending now is sluggish.
- Real disposable income will drop by 1.5% q/q in Q4, as employment falls, inflation soars, and benefits are cut.
- RHDI will recover in Q1, but then flatline in Q2, in response to the rise in employees' NICs rates.
- Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
- Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
- High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.
The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.
The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.
Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June
We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.
We think the June consumer prices report, released next Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% in May.
May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.