Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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13 Dec 2021 The Recovery was Fading Even Before Omicron Emerged

  • October's mere 0.1% m/m increase in GDP shows the recovery had little momentum before Omicron.
  • GDP was near its pre-Covid level only due to surging health activities; private sector GDP was 2.4% adrift.
  • A pullback in consumer services spending will depress GDP over the winter; no rate hike before March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: Rate Hikes Loom Closer, But Not This Week

  • The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
  • Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
  • We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Oct 2021 Recovery Sluggish Even Prior to the Withdrawal of Fiscal Support

  • August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
  • Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
  • We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Oct 2021 Covid Didn't Flare up in September, but the Winter Still Brings Risks

  • The recent fall in hospital admissions suggests that the pandemic was on the retreat in September...
  • ...But warmer-than-usual weather and fuel shortages have helped to reduce transmission temporarily.
  • The combination of fading vaccine effectiveness and limited booster jab plans suggests Q4 will be worse.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Sept 2021 Look to the Services Sector for the Adverse Impact of Fuel Shortages

  • Panic-buying of fuel likely will fade soon; no sign yet of shortage fears spreading to food or other goods...
  • ...But for a period, people likely will reduce trips to purchase non-essential goods and services.
  • The silver lining, however, has been a softening of the government's visa policies; probably more to come.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Sept 2021 Households will be Hurt by Q4's 1.5% Drop in Disposable Income

  • August's drop in retail sales was broad-based; the recovery in overall spending now is sluggish.
  • Real disposable income will drop by 1.5% q/q in Q4, as employment falls, inflation soars, and benefits are cut.
  • RHDI will recover in Q1, but then flatline in Q2, in response to the rise in employees' NICs rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Aug 2021 Employment has Risen Briskly, but will Fall Back when Furlough Ends

  • Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
  • Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
  • High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.

The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.

Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2021 Amazon Prime Day Likely Launched Retail Sales to New Heights in June

We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 July 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Rose Further in June, on Course for 3% by Year-End

We think the June consumer prices report, released next Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence