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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The slowdown in the pace of core price rises in the Eurozone in November is a good omen for the U.K.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses are falling, now that a recession is taking hold.
Manufacturers’ and retailers’ excess inventory reinforces the case for expecting goods inflation to drop.
Q2 GDP would have held steady without the Jubilee and risen by 0.9% q/q if Covid spending hadn't plunged.
The 0.2% q/q drop in households' real expenditure was a good result, given the massive fall in real incomes.
A recession isn't inevitable, provided fiscal support is increased substantially and households draw on savings.
We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.
GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.
Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
PMI data for July show that the recovery in GDP has nearly ground to a halt and inventory is piling up.
Employment growth slowed to a 15-month low, while the pace of input and output price rises eased materially.
On balance, the latest data imply the MPC won't act "forcefully"; market pricing for August is still too high.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
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