Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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real spending

5 Feb 2021 Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

20 Jan 2021 December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

18 Jan 2021 November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

11 Dec 2020 GDP won't Return to October's Level until March

October's GDP figures conformed to our expectation that the recovery hit a wall as the second wave of Covid-19 developed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Spending Review 2020

In one line: The medium-term fiscal consolidation likely will need to be bigger than the OBR's forecasts currently imply.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 11:19U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

18 Nov 2020 Retail Sales Likely Edged Down in October, But a New Peak Lies Ahead

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes--the data are released on Friday--looks too sanguine. We look for a fall...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Nov 2020 GDP Likely won't Return to September's Level Until the Spring

The economic recovery slowed to a snail's pace in September, with GDP merely rising by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and languishing 8.6% below its January 2020 peak, even...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

12 Oct 2020 The Recovery was Stalling Even Before the Second Wave

August's GDP report represented a fatal blow to the V-shaped recovery thesis.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Oct 2020 20:10U.K.

1 Oct 2020 Households Likely will Sit On Most of their Excess Savings, for Now

The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Sep 2020 20:10U.K.

14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Sep 2020 20:10U.K.

19 Aug 2020 The U.K.'s Underperformance is Not a Statistical Mirage

The Covid-19 downturn has been more severe in the U.K. than in most other advanced economies this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Aug 2020 14:00U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

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