Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

real disposable incomes

22 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Stabilisation of Retail Sales in Q4 will Prove to be a False Dawn

  • Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
  • ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
  • A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

14 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Britain will Be the First into Recession, and the Last One Out

  • The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
    and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
  • Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
  • Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Households are Holding onto their Savings; Real Spending will Fall.

  • Households saved more and borrowed less than usual in September, as the economic outlook deteriorated.
  • Households will remain cautious as confidence continues to be hit by fears over mortgage payments.
  • Real consumption looks set to drop by 1.5% next year, reflecting a fall in real incomes.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

3 Oct 2022 UK Monitor GDP Won't Top its Pre-Covid Peak Any Time Soon

  • The economy’s performance since Covid now looks even worse, after revisions to the national accounts.
  • Business investment rebounded in Q2, but the recent rise in borrowing costs points to a sharp fall next year.
  • Households’ real disposable incomes looks set to fall by a further 1% in 2023, dragging spending down.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the MPC Pick Prolonged High Inflation or a Mortgage Crisis

  • A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
  • Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
  • Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Mini-Budget Measures Won't Revitalise the Economy Next Year

  • Tax cuts which disproportionately benefit the top 1% of earners will do little to boost demand.
  • Most households are worse off, because the associated depreciation of sterling will raise the price level by 1.5%.
  • Mr. Kwarteng likely will impose tough spending limits in the Budget, to try to reverse the jump in gilt yields. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Mortgage Refinancing Set to Deliver a 1pp hit to Disposable Incomes in 2023

  • The effective interest rate for all mortgages has risen only slowly to date, but now looks set to soar...
  • ...As a rising number of borrowers refinance, and as lenders respond to the further jump in risk-free rates.
  • Expect a 1pp disposable income hit in 2023 if Bank Rate tops 4%, or a 0.7pp drag if Bank Rate tracks our forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's Drop in Retail Sales Makes a 50bp Bank Rate Hike More Likely

  • The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
  • The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
  • The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

14 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Wage Growth Remains too High for the MPC, But that will Change in 2023

  • Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
  • We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
  • For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Lifting Our Bank Rate Forecast, Despite a Looming Recession

  • The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
  • Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
  • Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

22 Aug 2022 UK Monitor How Much Longer Can Consumers Hold the Line?

Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.

October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...

...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market Slack will Continue to Build, Easing Wage Pressures

Growth in employment in the three months to June undershot the consensus by the most in nearly two years.

The workforce, by contrast, is finally picking up, assisted by a recovery in immigration, which will be maintained.

Vacancy and payroll employee data indicate labour demand is stagnating; unemployment will rise further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Q2 GDP Withstood the Government Spending and Jubilee Drags Well

Q2 GDP would have held steady without the Jubilee and risen by 0.9% q/q if Covid spending hadn't plunged.

The 0.2% q/q drop in households' real expenditure was a good result, given the massive fall in real incomes.

A recession isn't inevitable, provided fiscal support is increased substantially and households draw on savings.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The MPC's New Forecasts Challenge Markets' View of Much Higher Rates

The MPC's forecasts signal clearly that markets' medium-term expectations for Bank Rate are too high.

But concerns about persistence in domestic price setting, and looser fiscal policy, will spur further hikes.

We now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 2.00% in September and 2.25% in November, and then to pause.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The Headwind from Mortgage Refinancing is Set to Intensify

The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages rose by only 11bp in H1, but will jump by 30bp in H2...

...and by a further 30bp over the course of 2023, if markets are right about the path for risk-free rates.

Firms still are very exposed to movements in short- rates; the transmission mechanism remains powerful.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2022 UK Monitor Is Britain Really Faring Better than Other Advanced Economies?

The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.

We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.

Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2022 U.K. Monitor Retail Sales Will Recover in Q3, but this will be a False Dawn

Retail sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, as households reduced big-ticket discretionary purchases.

Real household disposable income looks set to rise in Q3, thanks to government support measures.

But even if Ms. Truss pushes through her tax cuts, incomes will drop back in the winter, impeding sales.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 July 2022 We Still Expect a Contraction in GDP in Q2, Despite the Sharp Rise in May

May’s rise in GDP was driven by a surge in doctor appointments-

really-and a jump in manufacturing output.

Consumer services firms struggled and will remain under pressure as households’ real incomes fell further.

June’s extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP, we expect a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.3%.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence