Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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13 Oct 2021 Solid Q3 Labour Data Won't Suffice for the MPC to Pull the Trigger

  • The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
  • Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
  • Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Aug 2021 The MPC's New Forecasts Set a High Bar for Future Upside Surprises

The MPC's forecasts imply markets' expectations for future rate hikes are about right...
...But the risks to the MPC's economic forecasts now are skewed firmly to the downside.
We now expect the first rate hike in Q2 2023, slightly earlier than before, with QE wind-down coming later.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 June 2021 Manufacturers Can't Ride the Restocking Wave Forever

The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence