Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
Interest payments look set to be about £37B higher in 2022/23 than the OBR forecast in March.
So the next PM will have to borrow more this year than last to have a fighting chance of averting a recession.
We expect Ms. Truss to unveil tax cuts and extra grants worth an extra £20B this year, and £44B in 2023/24.
Q2 GDP would have held steady without the Jubilee and risen by 0.9% q/q if Covid spending hadn't plunged.
The 0.2% q/q drop in households' real expenditure was a good result, given the massive fall in real incomes.
A recession isn't inevitable, provided fiscal support is increased substantially and households draw on savings.
The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.
But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.
Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.
The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.
So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.
The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence