Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

productivity

9 Nov 2021 Is it Already Clear the End of the Furlough Scheme has been Painless?

  • Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
  • Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
  • October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Oct 2021 Backdrop of Rising Borrowing Costs Will Force Mr. Sunak to be Cautious

  • The OBR likely will revise smaller its "scarring" estimate only to 2.5% of GDP, from 3.0% previously.
  • The resulting uplift to future tax revenues will be offset by higher projections for interest payments.
  • Mr. Sunak will have little, if any, headroom in meeting his target for a balanced current budget in three years' time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Oct 2021 Solid Q3 Labour Data Won't Suffice for the MPC to Pull the Trigger

  • The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
  • Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
  • Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Oct 2021 Latest Furlough Data Point to a Big Easing of Labour Shortages in Q4

  • Furlough scheme usage fell only marginally in August; 4.6% of staff still were furloughed by month-end.
  • Furlough rates remain high at small businesses, who lack the financial muscle to bring all staff back.
  • We expect only a modest rise in the unemployment rate to 5% in Q4, but a big jump in underemployment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Sept 2021 The OBR Likely Won't Gift Mr. Sunak Much Rosier Economic Forecasts

  • Public borrowing in August was only slightly below the OBR's forecast; interest payments are picking up.
  • We think the OBR will revise its long-term "scarring" estimate only to 2.5%, from 3.0% previously...
  • ...The workforce has continued to contract this year, confounding the OBR's hopes of a rebound.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Sept 2021 Hidden Slack will Rise More than the Unemployment Rate, Post-Furlough

  • The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
  • ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Aug 2021 Employment has Risen Briskly, but will Fall Back when Furlough Ends

  • Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
  • Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
  • High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2021 Furlough Usage isn't Falling Fast Enough to Signal a Painless End in Q4

The proportion of staff furloughed fell to 5.7% at the end of June, from 7.5% a month earlier...
...But surveys point to only a marginal fall in early July, and still high usage in fully recovered sectors.
Firms likely won't fully relinquish recent productivity gains; the employment rate will drop back in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2021 Rising Employment Won't Box the MPC into a Corner on Rates

It remains our view that employment and wages will not rise rapidly enough over the 18 months to prompt the MPC to hike Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 June 2021 Is Still-High Furlough Scheme Usage a Cause for Concern?

MPC members have made it clear that the evolution of slack in the labour market will have a crucial bearing on the timing of the first increase in Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence