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We think GDP held steady in May, setting up a much larger quarterly drop in Q2 than the MPC expects.
The ONS will adjust for the extra working day due to the movement of the usual late May public holiday to June.
Momentum in business services likely was offset by falls in output in the retail and hospitality sectors.
We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.
While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.
The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.
...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.
Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.
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