- GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
- Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
- A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
- Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
- Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...
...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.
Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored;Team Transitory probably is right.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We expect the March GDP report, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered renewed momentum even before restrictions on business activity had been lifted.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Earlier this week, the U.K. government trumpeted that it had hit its April 15 target of offering a Covid-19 vaccine to all adults aged 50 or over, and to people with serious underlying health conditions, three days ahead of schedule.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We expect February's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to show that output increased by about 0.8% month-to-month, reversing just under a third of January's 2.9% decline.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The 2.9% month-to-month drop in GDP in
January was smaller than our 4.0% forecast and
the consensus, 4.9%.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The U.K.’s vaccination programme now is well advanced, with 35% of the population having received at least one dose.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We expect January's GDP report, released on Friday, to reveal that output fell by about 4.0% month-to-month, less than the 4.9% consensus.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
