11 July 2022 GDP Likely Failed to Rebound in May after April's Drop

We think GDP held steady in May, setting up a much larger quarterly drop in Q2 than the MPC expects.

The ONS will adjust for the extra working day due to the movement of the usual late May public holiday to June.

Momentum in business services likely was offset by falls in output in the retail and hospitality sectors.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 June 2022 April GDP Data Will Confirm the Recovery has Stalled

We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.

While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.

The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 May 2022 GDP Likely was Unchanged in March, Preluding a Contraction in Q2

The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.

Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.

Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Apr 2022 Falling Health Sector Output Likely Caused GDP to Drop in February

Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.

...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.

Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Feb 2022 Surging Healthcare Activities Likely Cushioned GDP in December

• Business surveys point to substantial damage to GDP in December from Omicron; hospitality was hit hard...
• ...But surging Test & Trace and vaccine activities likely boosted month-to-month growth in GDP by 0.7pp.
• We look for a 0.6% month-to-month drop in GDP, which likely will not cause the MPC to blink.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Jan 2022 Above-Consensus November GDP Data Unlikely to Spur on the MPC

• We think that GDP increased by about 0.6% month-to-month in November, above the 0.4% consensus.
• Easing supply-chain blockages seem to have facilitat- ed pick-ups in manufacturing and construction output.
• Growth in services output was supported by increas- es in retail sales, transport usage and vaccinations.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.