Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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9 Apr 2020 How Will the Government Navigate its Way out of the Lockdown?

The lockdown in Britain that began two-and-a half weeks ago is starting to stem the number of new infections.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Apr 2020 20:20U.K.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Dec 2019 19:10U.K.

10 Oct 2019 Lower Tariffs won't Stop CPI Inflation Surging in the Event of No-deal

We remain confident in the success of legislation designed to compel the PM to request a further extension of the U.K.'s E.U. membership on October 19, in the overwhelmingly...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Oct 2019 14:10U.K.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Oct 2019 14:00U.K.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons?

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Sep 2019 20:10U.K.

18 Sept 2019 Retail Sales Likely Continued Their Above-Consensus Run in August

We expect August's retail sales figures, released on Thursday, to surprise modestly to the upside, supporting the MPC's view--which it will reaffirm later that...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Sep 2019 14:10U.K.

6 Sept 2019 Sterling Will Struggle to Recover Further this Side of the Election

Sterling recovered to $1.23 yesterday, its highest level since late July, in response to the sharp decline in the risk of a no -deal Brexit at the end of October, triggered by...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Sep 2019 14:10U.K.

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Sep 2019 20:10U.K.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Sep 2019 20:10U.K.

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Aug 2019 14:10U.K.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jul 2019 14:00U.K.

30 July 2019 No Pre-Brexit Panic Signalled by Monetary Indicators

The alarming pace at which the Government is marching towards the Brexit cliff edge still shows no sign of instilling panic among households or firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

24 July 2019 If a Downturn Materialises, Households Will Feel its Full Force

Our base case remains that the slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to about zero in Q2 is just a blip, and that the economy will regain momentum in Q3 and sustain it well...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

23 July 2019 How Long Until the Next General Election?

The spectre of a general election relentlessly will haunt the new Prime Minister--due to be announced as Tory party leader today before moving into Downing Street...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

15 July 2019 The MPC is Set to Delay for Longer, but Procrastination has a Price

We are pushing back our forecast for the next rise in Bank Rate to May 2020, from the tail-end of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jul 2019 20:10U.K.

4 July 2019 Investors are Seeing Carney's Comments Through a Dovish Prism

Investors have concluded from June's Markit/CIPS PMIs and Governor Carney's speech on Tuesday that the chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate before the end of this year now...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension

British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Jun 2019 20:10U.K.

19 June 2019 Market-based Recession Indicators Are Not Flashing Red

We doubt there will ever be a fail-safe leading indicator of when a recession is about to hit, but asset prices can help us to assess the risks, at least.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jun 2019 14:00U.K.

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Jun 2019 14:00U.K.

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