Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Aug 2021 Employment Growth Likely Topped the Consensus in June

We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.

June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.

Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.

The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.

Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 July 2021 The Peak for Covid-19 Cases is Within Sight

Growth in new Covid-19 cases has eased in recent days, bringing hope that infections will top out well below the 100K-a-day level forewarned by the new Health Secretary after his appointment last month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 June 2021 The Bullish Case for Sterling is Weak; the MPC Won't Hike First

The pound's retreat during June to $1.39, from $1.42, will have left many investors who have been long sterling this year—a crowded trade—nursing unrealised losses.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 May 2021 May's Further Reopening Will Not Stoke a Troublesome Virus Wave

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 have stopped falling. Indeed, the seven-day rolling total of confirmed cases on May 17 was 10% above its low on May 5.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 May 2021 Is an Early General Election Likely, Once the FTPA has been Scrapped?

The Government's decision to set out plans in the Queen's Speech to scrap the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act has fanned speculation that Mr. Johnson wants to hold a general election before May 2024, the date specified by the Act.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Apr 2021 The Recovery is Breaking into Its Stride, But No Dissaving Boom Yet

The glut of economic data released at the end of last week left us feeling more confident in our above-consensus forecast that GDP will rise by about 5% in Q2, following Q1's relatively modest 1.5% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Apr 2021 First Dosing will be Complete by Early July, Despite April's Slowdown

Earlier this week, the U.K. government trumpeted that it had hit its April 15 target of offering a Covid-19 vaccine to all adults aged 50 or over, and to people with serious underlying health conditions, three days ahead of schedule.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Mar 2021 The Days of Strong Workforce Growth are Long Gone

The U.K. economy turned in a respectable performance in the second half of the 2010s, partly due to solid growth in the workforce, which averaged 0.8% year-over-year, lifting GDP growth.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Mar 2021 Big Trade Deficits Likely will Return Later this Year

The trade balance has been very volatile over the last two years, primarily due to the impact of Covid-19 on supply chains and travel, as well as the disruption caused by Brexit.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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