Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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9 Feb 2021 Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

4 Feb 2021 A Q2 Rebound Looks Even More Likely, Following Positive Vaccine Trial Data

A Q2 Rebound Looks Even More Likely, Following Positive Vaccine Trial Data

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

13 Jan 2021 November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

27 Nov 2020 The Three-Tier System will Prevent a Full GDP Rebound in December

This month's lockdown has begun to crush the second wave of Covid-19. The seven-day rolling average of cases on November 25 was 27% lower than seven days earlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

24 Nov 2020 No Need to Rewrite Forecasts After November's Above-Consensus PMI

We're not rushing to revise our assessment of the scale of the economic damage wrought by the second lockdown, following the above-consensus reading of Markit's flash...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

5 Nov 2020 October's PMIs Add to Signs of Pre-Lockdown Stagnation

The downward revision to October's services PMI to 51.4, from the 52.3 flash estimate, adds to evidence that the recovery has ground to a halt, with GDP likely still about 8%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Oct 2020 15:10U.K.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Oct 2020 The Recovery Is Grinding to a Halt, in the face of the Second Wave

We don't take much reassurance from the upward revision to the business activity index of Markit's services PMI to 56.1, from the flash estimate, 55.1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Oct 2020 20:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, September, Final 2020

In one line: Output is nearly back to pre-Covid levels, but it will slip back once backlogs have been cleared.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Oct 2020 12:44U.K.

24 Sept 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Signal Fading Consumer Services Activity

Business surveys released this week suggest the economic recovery decelerated in early September.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

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