U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
pmi
- October’s PMI data point to a worsening recession; a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q4 GDP looks likely.
- Price rises are slowing, but remain too brisk for the MPC to take breath; we look for a 75bp hike next week.
- Further falls in interest rate expectations will weigh on sterling now the fiscal credibility gap has largely gone.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
- The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
- We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
- ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
- Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
- The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
- Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Low unemployment means few homeowners will be forced to sell up, and construction already is declining.
- Landlords, however, likely will struggle to raise rents in line with the jump in their mortgage payments.
- We expect the stock of homes on the market, therefore, to rise over the next year, weighing on house prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
