Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
- ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
- A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
The fast rollout of boosters has reduced U.K. hospital admissions, whereas they are surging across Europe.
Economic contagion for the U.K. in the event of fresh restrictions in the rest of Europe should be modest.
Manufacturing output would be unaffected, while the weaker euro will help to lower U.K. CPI inflation in 2022.
- Rising interest payments are slowing the rate that public borrowing is falling.
- Fiscal headroom probably will be just half that assumed in the October Budget…
- …But Mr. Sunak still will have a free hand in signing off pre-election tax cuts in 2023.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
- U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
- Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
- Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- On balance, we still think the MPC won't act next month; Mr. Bailey hinted October's labour data may not suffice.
- The MPC's inflation forecasts seemingly support markets' view that rates will rise to 1.0% by the end of 2022...
- ...But they are based on implausible energy price figures; its spare capacity forecasts point to a lower rate path.
- Budget announcements, including the jump in National Living Wage, will support earnings growth next year...
- ...but higher taxes and inflation suggest real take home pay will fall by 1.5%, the most since 2011.
- This is one key reason we expect the MPC will hike Bank Rate by less than markets currently expect.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- The MPC's view the output gap has closed means it must counter plans for higher government spending.
- But the Committee can wait until 2022 to act; the recovery is faltering, and underlying inflation is not high.
- The MPC will see key jobs data if it waits until December; higher rates are coming, but not just yet.
- The Chancellor spent only about half of the windfall stemming from the OBR's rosier economic forecasts...
- ...In order to build scope to cut taxes before the next election, while still meeting his new fiscal targets.
- The OBR's new GDP forecasts are too upbeat, while its debt interest forecast is too low, but this won't matter.
- Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
- Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
- Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.
- The OBR likely will revise smaller its "scarring" estimate only to 2.5% of GDP, from 3.0% previously.
- The resulting uplift to future tax revenues will be offset by higher projections for interest payments.
- Mr. Sunak will have little, if any, headroom in meeting his target for a balanced current budget in three years' time.
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
- The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
- Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
- The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.