Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Aug 2021 Employment has Risen Briskly, but will Fall Back when Furlough Ends

  • Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
  • Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
  • High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2021 Rising Employment Won't Box the MPC into a Corner on Rates

It remains our view that employment and wages will not rise rapidly enough over the 18 months to prompt the MPC to hike Bank Rate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 June 2021 A Blockbuster Labour Market Report for April?

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that the unemployment rate fell further in April, though not quite as rapidly as implied by recent business surveys.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 May 2021 Labour Market Slack will Remain Ample Enough to Restrain Wages

The labour market defied its past tendency to lag developments in the wider economy in Q1.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Apr 2021 The MPC Can Be Patient, Despite Less Slack than in the Early 2010s

The labour market withstood the lockdown well in Q1 and should b e in even better shape by the summer.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Mar 2021 January's Fall in the Unemployment Rate Wasn't a Fluke

Yesterday's labour market figures confirmed that the furlough scheme has successfully halted the tide of job losses.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

he OBR likely will maintain its optimistic assessment of the long-term scarring to the economy from the recent recession in its forecasts that accompany the Budget on Wednesday. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

The labour market firmed up at the turn of the year, with employment broadly holding steady and yearover-year growth in wages recovering towards pre-Covid norms.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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