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PAYE data, vacancy figures and business surveys all suggest employment growth slowed in June and July.
Labour supply, however, is picking up; the unemployment rate likely was marginally higher in Q2 than in Q1.
Wages likely continued to rise in June at a rate inconsistent with the inflation target, but probably didn't speed up.
We think employment grew at a steady 0.5% threemonth-on-three-month pace in May.
But expect even faster growth in the workforce to mean that the unemployment rate edged up again.
Surveys suggest wage growth had no more momentum in May than in prior months.
Year-over-year growth in private-sector wages slowed to 4.7% in April, slightly below the MPC’s 4.8% forecast.
The job market no longer is tightening, as the workforce recovers and growth in employment starts to slow.
We still expect the workforce to recover further, anchoring wage growth and easing the pressure for rate hikes.
The LFS measure of employment was essentially unchanged in Q1, despite the strength implied by surveys.
But the unemployment rate probably fell to a 47-year low of 3.7%, due to a contraction in the workforce.
Headline wage growth likely edged up, but remained well below CPI inflation; this gap will persist.
The upward trend in the PAYE measure of employees is more plausible than the flat trend presented by the LFS.
Very strong survey indicators might reflect rising average hours and likely are insensitive to rising quits.
Employment growth looks set to slow from Q2, due to the rise in NICs and weaker demand.
Employment started to rise again in the three months to February, having fallen in December and January.
The workforce should start to recover this year, reflecting a decline in inactivity and a rise in immigration.
Alongside slower labour demand growth this should mean wages continue to rise more slowly than prices.
We look for a three-month-on-three-month rise in employment of about 30K in February.
Another cohort with a high employment rate left the sample, but surveys signal solid underlying momentum.
The PAYE measure of median pay and settlements data, however, suggest wage growth stayed subdued.
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