Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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16 Nov 2021 Exports are Still in the Doldrums; Brexit Clearly is to Blame

  • U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
  • It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
  • Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Nov 2021 September GDP will Give the MPC Further Pause for Thought

  • We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
  • Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
  • Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Oct 2021 Inflation Expectations Data Leave Room for the MPC to Prevaricate

  • Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
  • Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
  • Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

27 Sept 2021 Survey Data Continue to Point to Sluggish GDP Growth in Q3

  • The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
  • Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
  • GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Sept 2021 Why is the U.K.'s Recovery Still Lagging Behind the Eurozone's?

  • The U.K. economy was hit harder by the pandemic and has struggled to catch up to the Eurozone since.
  • Britain's faster rollout of vaccines led many to assume that it would close the gap with the Eurozone in Q3...
  • ...But near-real-time indicators imply Q3 GDP growth actually was stronger in the Eurozone than the U.K.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Aug 2021 The Belated Shift Down in the PMIs Highlights a Drawn-out Recovery

  • August's sharp fall in the composite PMI brings it in line with other indicators, which weakened in July.
  • In fact, GDP likely rose at a faster rate in August than July, though it won't match its peak until year-end. 
  • Output prices reportedly rose at a slower pace in August, tentatively supporting the "transitory" take.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2021 Brexit is Limiting Trade and will be a Key Constraint on the Recovery

On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably...
...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same extent as its peers.
Brexit is one reason why we expect the recovery in GDP to slow as it approaches its pre-Covid level.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.

The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.

Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 June 2021 Don't Take the PMIs at Face Value, Other Surveys Signal Slower Growth

June’s Markit/CIPS PMIs suggest that the economic recovery still has plenty of momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 June 2021 Manufacturers Can't Ride the Restocking Wave Forever

The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 May 2021 Recovery Update: Now We're Sucking Diesel

Incoming data remain consistent with our above-consensus forecast that GDP will leap by about 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 May 2021 Britain is Missing Out on the Global Trade Upswing, Due to Brexit

A superficial glance at the U.K.'s trade data suggests that the Brexit bullet has been miraculously dodged.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence