U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
oil prices
- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Markets expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate by nearly 100bp next year, the most in one year since 2007.
- Rising mortgage rates likely would subtract just 0.1pp from households' disposable incomes next year...
- ...But house prices would flatline, so 100bp is on the limit of feasibility; Omicron brings downside risks.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
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The fast rollout of boosters has reduced U.K. hospital admissions, whereas they are surging across Europe.
Economic contagion for the U.K. in the event of fresh restrictions in the rest of Europe should be modest.
Manufacturing output would be unaffected, while the weaker euro will help to lower U.K. CPI inflation in 2022.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The ONS' BIC survey suggests the recovery stalled in both October and November
- OpenTable figures show that the boom in dining out has faded in November.
- We expect quarter-over-quarter GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in Q4, from 1.5%, and below the consensus, 1.1%
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Above the MPC’s forecast again; a 5% peak lies ahead.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- On balance, we still think the MPC won't act next month; Mr. Bailey hinted October's labour data may not suffice.
- The MPC's inflation forecasts seemingly support markets' view that rates will rise to 1.0% by the end of 2022...
- ...But they are based on implausible energy price figures; its spare capacity forecasts point to a lower rate path.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The effective mortgage rate will be just 20bp or so higher at the end of 2022, if markets' Bank Rate view is right.
- The interest rate on bank deposits would rise by more, so households' net interest payments would fall, initially.
- The housing market, however, looks like the weak link; we expect house prices to flatline in H1 2022.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The MPC's view the output gap has closed means it must counter plans for higher government spending.
- But the Committee can wait until 2022 to act; the recovery is faltering, and underlying inflation is not high.
- The MPC will see key jobs data if it waits until December; higher rates are coming, but not just yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
- Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
- Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.
Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.
- This month's Stamp Duty change has left housing unscathed; we look for a 0.5% q/q rise in house prices in Q4.
- House prices, however, will flatline in H1 2022; two-year fixed rate mortgage rates will jump by 60bp in Q4...
- ...The squeeze on households' real income, as inflation rises and taxes increase, also will subdue the market.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The MPC's preferred measure of underlying services inflation merely matched its 2010s average in September.
- CPI inflation is on course to rise to a peak of about 4.8% in April, from 3.1% in September...
- ...But the rise will be driven largely by higher energy prices; core inflation should remain well-behaved.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
