Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Sept 2022 UK Monitor The Improved Inflation Outlook Implies the MPC will Stick to a 50bp Hike

  • We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
  • ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
  • Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the Better News on CPI Inflation Keep Coming?

  • The month-to-month change in the August core CPI exceeded its seasonal norm by the least this year.
  • The recent decline in commodity prices suggests core CPI inflation will fall sharply next year.
  • Services inflation will be stickier, but the current support from energy price rises and VAT changes will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

  • Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
  • We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
  • But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence