Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Mar 2021 19:00U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR's new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2021 03:13U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Jan 2021 Public Borrowing Set to Hit £400B this Year, Despite Recent Trends

The public finances are in worse shape than the latest borrowing numbers indicate. For now, the ONS estimates that borrowing on the main "PSNB ex."

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

26 Nov 2020 The Fiscal Repair Job will be Bigger than the OBR's Forecasts Imply

The OBR's new forecasts for public borrowing likely understate the scale of the necessary future fiscal consolidation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

28 Sept 2020 Recent Public Borrowing Data Flatter to Deceive

Recent estimates of public borrowing have undershot the OBR's expectations, superficially suggesting the Chancellor has greater-than- expected capacity to borrow even more in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)27th Sep 2020 20:10U.K.

30 July 2020 The Surge in the Money Supply Poses No Inflation Threat

June's money and credit data show that firms have accumulated a large cash pile since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak, despite sales falling through the floor.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

9 July 2020 Further Stimulus Likely will be Needed in the Autumn Budget

The Chancellor's Summer Statement contained a targeted package of measures aiming to sustain employment and support the ailing hospitality sector. In total, these measures...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Jul 2020 14:00U.K.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 14:00U.K.

29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Jun 2020 20:10U.K.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Jun 2020 13:00U.K.

16 June 2020 How Much Extra QE will the MPC Announce This Week?

We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

26 May 2020 High Gilt Issuance no Sweat for Investors, for the Time Being

A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th May 2020 20:10U.K.

30 Mar 2020 Should Holders of Gilts Fear the Impending Surge in Issuance?

The economic downturn and the Chancellor's unprecedented fiscal measures mean that public borrowing likely will be about four times higher, in the forthcoming fiscal year,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Mar 2020 20:10U.K.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

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