Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

nhs

23 Nov 2021 MPC Members are Keeping their Options Open, No Matter the Data

  • MPC members Bailey and Pill are sitting on the fence, despite last week's upside data surprises.
  • In a weekend paper interview, the Governor highlighted the public sector's role in driving the recovery.
  • We put the odds of a December rate hike at 60%, well below the 80-to-90% range priced by markets.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Nov 2021 September GDP will Give the MPC Further Pause for Thought

  • We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
  • Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
  • Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Sept 2021 Underlying Wage Growth will Slow, Easing the Pressure on the MPC

  • The ONS estimates that underlying year-over-year growth in wages was between 3.6% and 5.1% in July...
  • ...We expect an increase in labour market slack, post-furlough, to push this rate down to about 3.2%.
  • Employers will pass on higher NICs rates to staff, while public sector pay will rise only modestly next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Sept 2021 The OBR Likely Won't Gift Mr. Sunak Much Rosier Economic Forecasts

  • Public borrowing in August was only slightly below the OBR's forecast; interest payments are picking up.
  • We think the OBR will revise its long-term "scarring" estimate only to 2.5%, from 3.0% previously...
  • ...The workforce has continued to contract this year, confounding the OBR's hopes of a rebound.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Aug 2021 Labour Shortages will be a Long- Lasting Constraint on GDP

  • Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
  • Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
  • The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Aug 2021 The Belated Shift Down in the PMIs Highlights a Drawn-out Recovery

  • August's sharp fall in the composite PMI brings it in line with other indicators, which weakened in July.
  • In fact, GDP likely rose at a faster rate in August than July, though it won't match its peak until year-end. 
  • Output prices reportedly rose at a slower pace in August, tentatively supporting the "transitory" take.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.

The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.

Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.

The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.

Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 July 2021 The Peak for Covid-19 Cases is Within Sight

Growth in new Covid-19 cases has eased in recent days, bringing hope that infections will top out well below the 100K-a-day level forewarned by the new Health Secretary after his appointment last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2021 Covid's Third Wave has Stopped the Recovery Temporarily in its Tracks

Many indicators suggest that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the third wave of Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence