Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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national living wage

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

20 Nov 2020 House Prices will Dip Next Year, Absent Fresh Government Support

Official house price figures confirm that the market is booming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

22 Oct 2020 Very Low CPI Inflation Reflects More than Just Indirect Tax Cuts

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in September, from 0.2% in August, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

1 Oct 2020 Households Likely will Sit On Most of their Excess Savings, for Now

The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q2 Nationwide House Prices, September 2020

In one line: Still faring worse than other advanced economies, despite the upward revision to GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Sep 2020 12:05U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 14:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q1 2020

In one line: The biggest contraction for 40 years, even though Q1 contained just nine lockdown days.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 12:23U.K.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jun 2020 14:00U.K.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th May 2020 14:00U.K.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th May 2020 20:10U.K.

27 Apr 2020 Low-Income Households are Poorly Prepared for the Downturn

Low-income households will feel the full force of the Covid-19 downturn and will have to slash their expenditure aggressively.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Apr 2020 20:10U.K.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

3 Apr 2020 Unemployment Is Soaring, How Far Will it Rise?

The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

1 Apr 2020 Healthy Pre-Virus Balance Sheets Enhance Recovery Prospects

The Q4 national accounts show that the economy lost further momentum at the end of last year, in the face of unprecedented levels of political uncertainty.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)31st Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q4

In one line: A jump in households' saving slowed the economy in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)31st Mar 2020 10:13U.K.

16 Mar 2020 The Inflation Outlook won't Stop the MPC from Easing Further

The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Mar 2020 20:20U.K.

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