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RPI inflation will rise even more than CPI inflation in April, due to the bigger weighting of energy prices.
But house price growth is about to slow, while mortgage interest payments will rise only slowly.
Weighting differences point to a bigger drag on RPI inflation from falling energy prices next year.
We look for two further 25bp increases in Bank Rate this year, not one, after March's jump in CPI inflation.
CPI inflation looks set to peak at about 9% in April and remain above 8% until the very end of this year.
But energy and core goods inflation will plunge next year; the MPC needn't be as active as markets expect.
We think CPI inflation rose by 0.5pp to 6.7% in March, well above the "around 6%" range expected by the MPC.
Motor fuel prices jumped, while PPI data point to further increases in food and core goods CPI inflation.
Services businesses also are passing on higher costs; rail fares and rents rose more than usual too.
November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...
...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.
We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.
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