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We expect Ofgem to announce today that the default tariff cap will increase by 80% in October.
This will boost CPI inflation by 4pp, assuming the ONS treats the government's grant as a fiscal transfer.
Core goods inflation, however, is set to fall sharply this winter; manufacturers and retailers have excess stock.
Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.
October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...
...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.
The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.
The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.
Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.
A jump in food prices was the main driver of July’s rise in CPI inflation, and the overshoot of the MPC’s forecast.
The core CPI continued to rise quickly, but recent falls in commodity prices point to slower increases ahead.
Lower petrol prices will mean CPI inflation undershoots the MPC’s forecast in August; a 25bp hike is on the table.
The trade deficit has hit a record share of GDP over the last two quarters, but it will only get worse.
Goods imports will fall, as firms now have excess stock, but the value of energy imports will surge this winter.
The U.K.'s shortfall in exports relative to 2018 remains the largest in the G7; Brexit is largely to blame.
CPI inflation likely jumped to 9.9% in July, from 9.4% in June, led by rises in motor fuel and food CPI inflation.
Eurozone data and the BRC's figures both point to a renewed rise in core goods CPI inflation in July.
Surveys show services prices have continued to rise at an above-average rate, albeit less quickly than in Q2.
Retail sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, as households reduced big-ticket discretionary purchases.
Real household disposable income looks set to rise in Q3, thanks to government support measures.
But even if Ms. Truss pushes through her tax cuts, incomes will drop back in the winter, impeding sales.
The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.
But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.
Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
We think that CPI inflation leapt to 9.4% in June, from 9.1% in May, exceeding the MPC’s 9.1% forecast.
But the upside surprise will be due to a massive rise in motor fuel prices, and another increase in food inflation.
Core inflation likely fell to 5.8%, from 5.9% in May; June 2021’s surge in goods prices likely wasn’t repeated.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.
Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.
Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.
We think the headline rate of CPI inflation was stable at 9.0% in May, despite rising food and fuel inflation.
Core CPI inflation likely fell; data suggest the rise in goods prices didn’t match the big jump a year ago.
Retailers are starting to accept a squeeze on the margins, while used car prices are continuing to fall.
The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.
Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.
We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.
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