Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

motor fuel

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the MPC Pick Prolonged High Inflation or a Mortgage Crisis

  • A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
  • Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
  • Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the Better News on CPI Inflation Keep Coming?

  • The month-to-month change in the August core CPI exceeded its seasonal norm by the least this year.
  • The recent decline in commodity prices suggests core CPI inflation will fall sharply next year.
  • Services inflation will be stickier, but the current support from energy price rises and VAT changes will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Sept 2022 UK Monitor A Recession Now Looks Unlikely, following Bold Energy Price Action

  • The average household will spend less on energy over the next six months than during the last six.
  • So a winter recession now looks unlikely, and the MPC can return to focussing on core CPI inflation.
  • Fiscal policy will stabilise demand, not lift it; job market slack still looks set to emerge, limiting rate hikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's CPI Report will Temper Bets on a 75bp Rate Hike

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 9.9% in August, from 10.1% in
    July, returning to the level forecast by the MPC.
  • A slump in motor fuel CPI inflation likely dominated the further pick-up in food inflation.
  • BRC data show the pace of core goods price rises eased in August; July's large jump in rents won't be repeated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Sept 2022 UK Monitor How will Energy Price Interventions Impact the Inflation Outlook?

  • Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
    trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
  • If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
  • Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence