Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

mortgages

2 Dec 2021 Could the Economy Cope Next Year with the Rate Hike Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate by nearly 100bp next year, the most in one year since 2007.
  • Rising mortgage rates likely would subtract just 0.1pp from households' disposable incomes next year...
  • ...But house prices would flatline, so 100bp is on the limit of feasibility; Omicron brings downside risks.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Nov 2021 Look to the Housing Market, not Interest Payments, for Rate Hike Pain

  • The effective mortgage rate will be just 20bp or so higher at the end of 2022, if markets' Bank Rate view is right.
  • The interest rate on bank deposits would rise by more, so households' net interest payments would fall, initially.
  • The housing market, however, looks like the weak link; we expect house prices to flatline in H1 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Oct 2021 Could the Economy Withstand the Rate Hikes Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
  • Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
  • ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Sept 2021 Consumers are Missing in Action, will they Finally Stop Saving in Q4

  • Households continued to add to their stock of savings at a faster rate in August than before Covid.
  • Unsecured lending rose only modestly too; lower confi- dence in September points to still-subdued spending.
  • Surging energy prices mean we are lifting our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, from 3.2% two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence