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Monthly payments will jump by about £100 for most households who refinance mortgages this year.
Mortgage approvals will fall sharply in the second half of this year in response to higher rates.
But house prices likely will stabilise, not fall; the supply of homes coming to the market will contract too.
Households must save less—or borrow more—to the tune of £9B in Q2, in order for real spending not to fall.
That is possible, given that "excess savings" are £186B and consumer credit is £25B below its peak.
But people didn't draw on savings in March and still are reluctant to borrow, so GDP looks set to dip in Q2.
RPI inflation will rise even more than CPI inflation in April, due to the bigger weighting of energy prices.
But house price growth is about to slow, while mortgage interest payments will rise only slowly.
Weighting differences point to a bigger drag on RPI inflation from falling energy prices next year.
House price growth was strong in Q1, but will now slow, due to rising mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
Several timely indicators of demand, including the RICS new buyer enquiries balance, are starting to soften.
House price growth looks set to slow to 4.5% this year, and mortgage approvals will fall to pre-Covid levels.
The two-year fixed 75% LTV mortgage rate leapt by 35bp to 2.11% in March; it is set to rise to 2.7% by Q4.
The current tight spread between mortgage rates and risk-free rates is unsustainable; deposit rates will rise too.
Most refinancers will cope, but the rise in new rates will be severe enough to slow house price growth.
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