Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

money and credit data

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, October 2022

  • In one line: Still no sign of households using savings to support their real expenditure.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

25 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Why Do We Expect Unemployment to Rise Sooner than Official Forecasters?

Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.

Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.

Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Nov 2022 UK Monitor September GDP Data to Reveal a Recession-Bound Economy

  • We think GDP dropped by 0.5% month-to-month in September; business surveys were very weak...
  • ...And the extra public holiday for the Queen’s funeral likely was more damaging than the Jubilee holiday.
  • A peak-to-trough fall in GDP of about 2.3% likely lies ahead, similar in scale to the early 1990s recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, September 2022

  • In one line: Households are acting with caution when deciding to save less and borrow more. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

25 Oct 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Show a Deepening Downturn, but Price Rises Remain too Rapid

  • October’s PMI data point to a worsening recession; a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q4 GDP looks likely.
  • Price rises are slowing, but remain too brisk for the MPC to take breath; we look for a 75bp hike next week.
  • Further falls in interest rate expectations will weigh on sterling now the fiscal credibility gap has largely gone.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Oct 2022 UK Monitor The Developing Recession is More Important for Gilts than the LDI Crunch

  • The outlook for gilt yields beyond this month depends on the economy’s performance, not LDI fund turmoil.
  • August’s GDP data show a recession was underway before the surge in economy-wide borrowing costs.
  • Inflation pressures will be extinguished by the recession; the BoE doesn’t need to go into overdrive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Oct 2022 UK Monitor August GDP and Labour Market Data to Point to Stagnation

  • We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
    in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
  • The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
  • Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, August 2022

  • In one line: The pick-up in mortgage approvals will be short-lived.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Wage Growth Remains too High for the MPC, But that will Change in 2023

  • Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
  • We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
  • For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, July/August 2022

  • In one line: Grim; the recovery in employment has petered out, but slack hasn’t built yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market and Retail Sales Data to Persuade the MPC to be Cautious

  • Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
  • Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
  • BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2022 UK Monitor July GDP to Show the Economy has Slowed, but is Not in Recession Yet

  • We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
    GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
  • The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
  • Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Sept 2022 UK Monitor How will Energy Price Interventions Impact the Inflation Outlook?

  • Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
    trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
  • If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
  • Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

  • Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
  • We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
  • But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

31 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Government Support Needed to Maintain Real Consumption

  • Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
  • Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
  • We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, July 2022

  • In one line: Households still are saving less and borrowing more, but this alone won’t prevent a recession this winter.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market Slack will Continue to Build, Easing Wage Pressures

Growth in employment in the three months to June undershot the consensus by the most in nearly two years.

The workforce, by contrast, is finally picking up, assisted by a recovery in immigration, which will be maintained.

Vacancy and payroll employee data indicate labour demand is stagnating; unemployment will rise further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, June/July 2022

  • In one line: Labour supply is bouncing back, just as demand stops rising.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence