Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

markets

28 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Sterling is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Sterling's rally has been driven by the elimination of the fiscal risk premium, which we doubt will return... 

...But the current account deficit will remain large next year, despite the recession, leaving sterling vulnerable. 

The MPC likely will hold back from raising Bank Rate as far as markets expect; we look for $1.15 in the spring. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Truss's Resignation Less Newsworthy than Broadbent's Dovish Speech

  • The contest for the next PM is a side-show; all that matters for investors is Mr. Hunt is secure as Chancellor.
  • MPC member Broadbent has given the clearest signal yet the BoE thinks markets expect too many rate hikes...
  • ...He suggested that key developments since August implied only a 75bp higher rate path was warranted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The MPC's New Forecasts Challenge Markets' View of Much Higher Rates

The MPC's forecasts signal clearly that markets' medium-term expectations for Bank Rate are too high.

But concerns about persistence in domestic price setting, and looser fiscal policy, will spur further hikes.

We now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 2.00% in September and 2.25% in November, and then to pause.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The Headwind from Mortgage Refinancing is Set to Intensify

The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages rose by only 11bp in H1, but will jump by 30bp in H2...

...and by a further 30bp over the course of 2023, if markets are right about the path for risk-free rates.

Firms still are very exposed to movements in short- rates; the transmission mechanism remains powerful.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

13 May 2022 Brisk Quarterly GDP Growth Masks a Slowdown during Q1

Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.

Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.

Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence