Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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11 Feb 2021 The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

14 Dec 2020 How Far Would Sterling Fall in the Event of No-deal?

Attempting to forecast the likely level of sterling in the event of a no-deal Brexit is more of an art than a science, as it is impossible to know the extent to which this act of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

7 Dec 2020 GDP Likely Held Steady in October, as the Second Wave Advanced

We expect October's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to about zero, from 1.1% in September, as consumers retreated to their homes as...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

4 Dec 2020 Will the Impediments to Negative Rates Lessen Next Year?

Markets no longer are confident that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below zero next year, from its current 0.10% rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

20 Oct 2020 Will U.K. Equities Reverse their Underperformance After a Brexit Deal?

U.K. equities have been unable to catch a break this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

15 Oct 2020 What will it Take to Make Economic Data Releases Great Again?

Financial markets have barely reacted to economic data surprises since the Covid-19 crisis commenced in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

13 Oct 2020 High Inflation Expectations aren't Warranted by the Outlook

You wouldn't know from markets' inflation expectations that a large deflationary shock recently has hit the economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

16 June 2020 How Much Extra QE will the MPC Announce This Week?

We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

11 June 2020 How to Read Next Week's Migraine- Inducing Labour Market Report

Many investors probably will be scratching their heads in the wake of next week's labour market report, which will reveal the Covid-19 hit to employment and wages in April, as...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka?

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jun 2020 20:10U.K.

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