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We expect Ofgem to announce today that the default tariff cap will increase by 80% in October.
This will boost CPI inflation by 4pp, assuming the ONS treats the government's grant as a fiscal transfer.
Core goods inflation, however, is set to fall sharply this winter; manufacturers and retailers have excess stock.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence