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We expect Ofgem to announce today that the default tariff cap will increase by 80% in October.
This will boost CPI inflation by 4pp, assuming the ONS treats the government's grant as a fiscal transfer.
Core goods inflation, however, is set to fall sharply this winter; manufacturers and retailers have excess stock.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
The trade deficit has hit a record share of GDP over the last two quarters, but it will only get worse.
Goods imports will fall, as firms now have excess stock, but the value of energy imports will surge this winter.
The U.K.'s shortfall in exports relative to 2018 remains the largest in the G7; Brexit is largely to blame.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
May’s rise in GDP was driven by a surge in doctor appointments-
really-and a jump in manufacturing output.
Consumer services firms struggled and will remain under pressure as households’ real incomes fell further.
June’s extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP, we expect a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.3%.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.
But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.
Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.
Domestic production accounts for nearly half of natural gas consumption, well above the European average.
Imports from Russia accounted for only 5% of the total; the U.K. has long-term deals with Norway and Qatar.
The bigger risk is that manufacturers are indirectly af- fected by rolling blackouts in other European countries.
The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.
CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...
...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.
The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
The composite PMI held steady at 53.1 in June, but it has been misleadingly upbeat in recent months.
It excludes the retail and public sectors, both of which will drag on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2.
We still forecast a 0.7% q/q drop in Q2 GDP, and only a 25bp increase in Bank Rate in August.
We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.
While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.
The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.
The PMI points to GDP flatlining in Q2, but a fall is more likely, given the plunge in government Covid spending.
The MPC shouldn't take comfort from the resilience of the employment index; it lags changes in the PMI.
Many firms still are hiking prices, but the number absorbing cost rises, due to faltering demand, is growing.
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