Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
May’s rise in GDP was driven by a surge in doctor appointments-
really-and a jump in manufacturing output.
Consumer services firms struggled and will remain under pressure as households’ real incomes fell further.
June’s extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP, we expect a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.3%.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.
But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.
Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.
Domestic production accounts for nearly half of natural gas consumption, well above the European average.
Imports from Russia accounted for only 5% of the total; the U.K. has long-term deals with Norway and Qatar.
The bigger risk is that manufacturers are indirectly af- fected by rolling blackouts in other European countries.
The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.
CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...
...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.
The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
The composite PMI held steady at 53.1 in June, but it has been misleadingly upbeat in recent months.
It excludes the retail and public sectors, both of which will drag on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2.
We still forecast a 0.7% q/q drop in Q2 GDP, and only a 25bp increase in Bank Rate in August.
We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.
While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.
The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.
The PMI points to GDP flatlining in Q2, but a fall is more likely, given the plunge in government Covid spending.
The MPC shouldn't take comfort from the resilience of the employment index; it lags changes in the PMI.
Many firms still are hiking prices, but the number absorbing cost rises, due to faltering demand, is growing.
Firms want to hold more stocks than in the 2010s, but now are accumulating them at a slower pace.
GDP growth depends on the rate of change in inventories, so the deceleration will depress growth.
Futures prices historically have been a better guide to energy prices than assuming they don't change.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence