Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

manufacturers

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Aug 2021 Labour Shortages will be a Long- Lasting Constraint on GDP

  • Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
  • Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
  • The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Aug 2021 The Belated Shift Down in the PMIs Highlights a Drawn-out Recovery

  • August's sharp fall in the composite PMI brings it in line with other indicators, which weakened in July.
  • In fact, GDP likely rose at a faster rate in August than July, though it won't match its peak until year-end. 
  • Output prices reportedly rose at a slower pace in August, tentatively supporting the "transitory" take.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.

The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.

Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2021 Covid's Third Wave has Stopped the Recovery Temporarily in its Tracks

Many indicators suggest that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the third wave of Covid-19.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 June 2021 GDP Likely Jumped to Within 4% of its Pre-Covid Level in April

We expect April’s GDP report, released on Friday, to show that the economy continued to recover at a rapid rate in April.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 June 2021 Manufacturers Can't Ride the Restocking Wave Forever

The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 May 2021 Recovery Update: Now We're Sucking Diesel

Incoming data remain consistent with our above-consensus forecast that GDP will leap by about 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 May 2021 Health Spending Likely Drove Above- Consensus GDP Growth in March

We expect the March GDP report, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered renewed momentum even before restrictions on business activity had been lifted.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 May 2021 Modest Car Sales Show Households aren't Ready to Splurge their Savings

The jump in private car registrations to 142K last month—a record high for April—should not be interpreted as a sign that consumers already feel comfortable enough to fritter away their savings.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Apr 2021 GDP Likely Edged Up in February, Despite Unchanged Lockdown Rules

We expect February's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to show that output increased by about 0.8% month-to-month, reversing just under a third of January's 2.9% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Mar 2021 GDP is Rebounding, Despite Little Change in Lockdown Rules

The green shoots of a sustainable recovery in economic activity are starting to sprout, even though lockdown rules have not eased materially this month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Mar 2021 January GDP Likely was Less Dreadful than the Consensus Expects

We expect January's GDP report, released on Friday, to reveal that output fell by about 4.0% month-to-month, less than the 4.9% consensus.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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