Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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7 Oct 2021 Could the Economy Withstand the Rate Hikes Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
  • Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
  • ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Aug 2021 Will the MPC Finally Set Out its Views on the Lower Bound and Sequencing?

Now that negative rates are in the toolkit, the MPC might divulge its new estimate for the lower bound.
The MPC also might lower the threshold that Bank Rate must reach before it starts to wind down QE.
We expect Ofgem to announce on Friday that the default tariff cap will rise by a painful 13.5% in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 July 2021 Insolvencies Will Rise as Support is Withdrawn, But Not to 2008 Levels

Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 June 2021 The Bullish Case for Sterling is Weak; the MPC Won't Hike First

The pound's retreat during June to $1.39, from $1.42, will have left many investors who have been long sterling this year—a crowded trade—nursing unrealised losses.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence