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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Dave Ramsden is the first MPC member to admit rates might need to be cut "quite quickly" in the medium term.
The cuts currently priced-in by markets from late H2 2023 aren't big enough to lower households' interest bill.
But CPI inflation won't be near the target until Q4 2023; pre-election fiscal stimulus will limit the scope for easing.
The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages rose by only 11bp in H1, but will jump by 30bp in H2...
...and by a further 30bp over the course of 2023, if markets are right about the path for risk-free rates.
Firms still are very exposed to movements in short- rates; the transmission mechanism remains powerful.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
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