Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

loan

2 Dec 2021 Could the Economy Cope Next Year with the Rate Hike Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate by nearly 100bp next year, the most in one year since 2007.
  • Rising mortgage rates likely would subtract just 0.1pp from households' disposable incomes next year...
  • ...But house prices would flatline, so 100bp is on the limit of feasibility; Omicron brings downside risks.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Nov 2021 Look to the Housing Market, not Interest Payments, for Rate Hike Pain

  • The effective mortgage rate will be just 20bp or so higher at the end of 2022, if markets' Bank Rate view is right.
  • The interest rate on bank deposits would rise by more, so households' net interest payments would fall, initially.
  • The housing market, however, looks like the weak link; we expect house prices to flatline in H1 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Oct 2021 The OBR's New Interest Payments Forecast will Make Mr. Sunak Wince

  • The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
  • Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
  • The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 July 2021 Insolvencies Will Rise as Support is Withdrawn, But Not to 2008 Levels

Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence