U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
loan
- Markets expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate by nearly 100bp next year, the most in one year since 2007.
- Rising mortgage rates likely would subtract just 0.1pp from households' disposable incomes next year...
- ...But house prices would flatline, so 100bp is on the limit of feasibility; Omicron brings downside risks.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The effective mortgage rate will be just 20bp or so higher at the end of 2022, if markets' Bank Rate view is right.
- The interest rate on bank deposits would rise by more, so households' net interest payments would fall, initially.
- The housing market, however, looks like the weak link; we expect house prices to flatline in H1 2022.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
- Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
- The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
