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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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CPI inflation in May was 1pp higher in the U.K. than in theEurozone; Brexit hasn’t helped but isn’t the main cause.
U.K. core goods prices were depressed more by lock- downs; base effects will lower the U.K.’s rate soon.
The relative strength of U.K. services inflation is due to VAT hikes and a rise in course costs for E.U. students.
The MPC was clear last month; no more than two 25bp rate hikes would be needed to tame inflation.
Since then, activity indicators have weakened and medium-term inflation expectations have stayed low.
A majority will vote again to hike by 25bp, and investors will be left revising the odds of 50bp in August.
Sterling fell by 2% on a trade-weighted basis in April; investors are increasingly betting on a further fall.
The MPC can't be indifferent to sterling; depreciations impart a large and long-lasting boost to inflation.
But sterling's recent insensitivity to changes in rate expectations implies it can hike Bank Rate "modestly".
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