Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Investors expect U.K. official rates to rise by 98bp this year, exceeding the 86bp anticipated rise in the U.S.
- U.K. households, however, are less well-placed than those in the U.S. to withstand higher rates.
- The MPC will switch to QT before the Fed, while membership changes will strengthen the doves' hands.
- The return of monthly saving to pre-Covid levels is a sign of the real income squeeze, not surging spending.
- The recent surge in house prices, however, is enabling refinancing homeowners to access lower interest rates.
- Firms continued to repay external borrowing in November, but we remain upbeat on the capex outlook.
- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
- ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
- Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.
- The effective mortgage rate will be just 20bp or so higher at the end of 2022, if markets' Bank Rate view is right.
- The interest rate on bank deposits would rise by more, so households' net interest payments would fall, initially.
- The housing market, however, looks like the weak link; we expect house prices to flatline in H1 2022.
- Households continued in September to save more and borrow less than they did before Covid.
- The recovery in spending will continue only if households save less in response to falling real incomes...
- Households did this in 2016, but are less confident now, despite having a larger precautionary buffer.
- The MPC will stop reinvestments in Q1 and start selling gilts in Q4 2022, if markets are right about rates.
- The impact of asset sales is unknown and the MPC wants them to be on auto pilot, so they will be cautious.
- Gilt sales of £10B per quarter would balance creating future stimulus space with keeping markets steady.
- Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
- Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
- ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.
- Households continued to add to their stock of savings at a faster rate in August than before Covid.
- Unsecured lending rose only modestly too; lower confi- dence in September points to still-subdued spending.
- Surging energy prices mean we are lifting our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, from 3.2% two weeks ago.
Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.