Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

labour market

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January/February 2023

  • In one line: The clear slowdown in wage growth strengthens the case for an MPC pause.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, December/January 2023

  • In one line: A clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth boosts the chances of no further rate hikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January 2023

  • In one line: Housing market activity still is being hit by elevated mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December 2022

  • In one line: The housing market is continuing to succumb to higher mortgage rates. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November/December 2022

  • In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October/November 2022

  • In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November 2022

  • In one line: Not near the nadir for activity or prices yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October 2022

  • In one line: Clear signs house prices now are falling. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

9 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Construction Output will Fall Twice as Sharply as GDP Next Year

  • The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
  • ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
  • Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

26 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Don't Take Comfort from the Continued Stability of Labour Market Indicators

  • October’s business survey, vacancy and redundancy data are all consistent with a soft landing, for now.
  • The outlook for a sharp rise in firms’ borrowing costs, however, points to painful job losses next year.
  • The National Living Wage is on course to rise sharply in 2023, potentially compounding the job cuts ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2022

  • In one line: Building evidence that housing market activity is slowing, as mortgage rates surge.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

12 Oct 2022 UK Monitor The Labour Market Won't Remain Tight for Much Longer

  • Employment was broadly flat in Q3, but the recent jump in firms' borrowing costs signals a big fall ahead.
  • Long-term sickness looks set to rise further, but government policies likely will boost the workforce in 2023.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to peak at about 5.5%, easily high enough to subdue wage growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Oct 2022 UK Monitor August GDP and Labour Market Data to Point to Stagnation

  • We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
    in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
  • The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
  • Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: BoE Gilt Market Intervention

  • In one line: A strong indication the BoE will not hike Bank Rate all the way to 6%.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Mini-Budget Measures Won't Revitalise the Economy Next Year

  • Tax cuts which disproportionately benefit the top 1% of earners will do little to boost demand.
  • Most households are worse off, because the associated depreciation of sterling will raise the price level by 1.5%.
  • Mr. Kwarteng likely will impose tough spending limits in the Budget, to try to reverse the jump in gilt yields. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Sept 2022 UK Monitor MPC Likely to Stick to Another 50bp Hike in November, Despite Tax Cuts

  • The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
  • The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
  • ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence