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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Markets now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate twice next year, with the first hike as soon as February.
The MPC, however, will focus on labour market slack and the prospects for its elimination, not just inflation.
The recovery has faded, implying many furloughed staff will be underemployed in Q4; the MPC needn't rush.
We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.
June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.
Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.
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