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The LFS measure of employment was essentially unchanged in Q1, despite the strength implied by surveys.
But the unemployment rate probably fell to a 47-year low of 3.7%, due to a contraction in the workforce.
Headline wage growth likely edged up, but remained well below CPI inflation; this gap will persist.
Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.
Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.
Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.
The near-term outlook for households' real disposable income looks bleak; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.
A recession, however, isn't our base case; people have ample scope to draw on savings and to borrow more.
We now Bank Rate to top out at 1.25% this year, not 1.00%, but still think markets have lost the plot.
The estimate of public borrowing in 2021/22 almost certainly will be revised down over the coming months.
But we think public borrowing is on course to overshoot the OBR's forecast in 2022/23 and beyond.
The OBR's assumption that productivity will grow at double the pace seen in the 2010s is implausible.
March's retail sales figures were a wake-up call for investors; households are struggling to tread water.
Consumers' confidence weakened further in April and now is only a touch above its all-time low.
We still expect a recession to be avoided, but the risk will weigh on the MPC's forthcoming decisions.
The upward trend in the PAYE measure of employees is more plausible than the flat trend presented by the LFS.
Very strong survey indicators might reflect rising average hours and likely are insensitive to rising quits.
Employment growth looks set to slow from Q2, due to the rise in NICs and weaker demand.
House price growth was strong in Q1, but will now slow, due to rising mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
Several timely indicators of demand, including the RICS new buyer enquiries balance, are starting to soften.
House price growth looks set to slow to 4.5% this year, and mortgage approvals will fall to pre-Covid levels.
Employment started to rise again in the three months to February, having fallen in December and January.
The workforce should start to recover this year, reflecting a decline in inactivity and a rise in immigration.
Alongside slower labour demand growth this should mean wages continue to rise more slowly than prices.
We look for a three-month-on-three-month rise in employment of about 30K in February.
Another cohort with a high employment rate left the sample, but surveys signal solid underlying momentum.
The PAYE measure of median pay and settlements data, however, suggest wage growth stayed subdued.
The U.K. yield curve has not inverted and inversion is not a reliable bellwether of U.K. recessions.
Equity prices for consumer-facing companies have fallen sharply, but not yet to recession levels.
The oil price has been this high before without triggering a downturn, and GDP is less energy-intensive now.
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