U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
labour
- In one line: The clear slowdown in wage growth strengthens the case for an MPC pause.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth boosts the chances of no further rate hikes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Wage growth is near its peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
- ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
- Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- October’s business survey, vacancy and redundancy data are all consistent with a soft landing, for now.
- The outlook for a sharp rise in firms’ borrowing costs, however, points to painful job losses next year.
- The National Living Wage is on course to rise sharply in 2023, potentially compounding the job cuts ahead.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment was broadly flat in Q3, but the recent jump in firms' borrowing costs signals a big fall ahead.
- Long-term sickness looks set to rise further, but government policies likely will boost the workforce in 2023.
- We expect the unemployment rate to peak at about 5.5%, easily high enough to subdue wage growth.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Employment not in free fall, yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
- The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
- Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Tax cuts which disproportionately benefit the top 1% of earners will do little to boost demand.
- Most households are worse off, because the associated depreciation of sterling will raise the price level by 1.5%.
- Mr. Kwarteng likely will impose tough spending limits in the Budget, to try to reverse the jump in gilt yields.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
- The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
- ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The effective interest rate for all mortgages has risen only slowly to date, but now looks set to soar...
- ...As a rising number of borrowers refinance, and as lenders respond to the further jump in risk-free rates.
- Expect a 1pp disposable income hit in 2023 if Bank Rate tops 4%, or a 0.7pp drag if Bank Rate tracks our forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
- We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
- For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Grim; the recovery in employment has petered out, but slack hasn’t built yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
- Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
- BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The average household will spend less on energy over the next six months than during the last six.
- So a winter recession now looks unlikely, and the MPC can return to focussing on core CPI inflation.
- Fiscal policy will stabilise demand, not lift it; job market slack still looks set to emerge, limiting rate hikes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
- If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
- Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
- Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
- Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
