Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

10 Feb 2021 Will the Yield Curve Continue to Steepen this Year?

Will the Yield Curve Continue to Steepen this Year?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

5 Feb 2021 Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

3 Feb 2021 The £185B Question: Will Households Spend their Cash Hoard?

The £185B Question: Will Households Spend their Cash Hoard?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

5 Jan 2021 Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:34U.K.

4 Dec 2020 Will the Impediments to Negative Rates Lessen Next Year?

Markets no longer are confident that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below zero next year, from its current 0.10% rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

10 Nov 2020 GDP Likely Grew Slowly in September, but the Consensus is too Downbeat

September's GDP report, released on Thursday, looks set to show the economic recovery ended Q3 with little momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Nov 2020 17:20U.K.

6 Nov 2020 The MPC Still Sees a Case for More Stimulus, Despite its QE Salvo

Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

15 Oct 2020 What will it Take to Make Economic Data Releases Great Again?

Financial markets have barely reacted to economic data surprises since the Covid-19 crisis commenced in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

8 Oct 2020 House Prices won't Remain at Current Levels, Unless the Treasury Intervenes

Data continue to show that the housing market ran hot over the summer, as buyers eager to change their lifestyles in response to Covid-19 rushed through purchases.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q2 Nationwide House Prices, September 2020

In one line: Still faring worse than other advanced economies, despite the upward revision to GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Sep 2020 12:05U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Jul 2020 14:00U.K.

21 July 2020 The Housing Market Won't Defy Gravity for Long

The U.K.'s property obsession has been immune to Covid-19, so far.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

6 July 2020 How Would the BoE Reduce its Balance Sheet, if the Need Arose?

Governor Bailey signalled a potential shift in the Bank of England's approach to withdrawing monetary stimulus--whenever the time comes--last month in an article for...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jul 2020 20:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q1 2020

In one line: The biggest contraction for 40 years, even though Q1 contained just nine lockdown days.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 12:23U.K.

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