Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- In one line: Boosted by the SDLT changes; higher mortgage rates cast a shadow over the 2022 outlook.
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
- Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
- The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
- The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.
- The Conservatives' poll lead has virtually disappeared; we doubt it will re-emerge next year.
- Higher inflation and rising interest rates will keep consumers' confidence weak.
- A hung parliament would bring to the fore Brexit and Scottish independence risks again, weakening sterling.
- Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
- Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
- October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- Markets are pricing-in a 65bp rise in Bank Rate by March and expect the first hike to come next week...
- ...But falling consumer confidence, low pay settlements and rising Covid cases strengthen the case for patience.
- November is "live", but markets' conviction is too strong; potential swing voters on the MPC have been very
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
- Revisions to Q2 GDP data brightened the picture of the economy's recent trade performance...
- ...But Brexit still is preventing U.K. exporters from benefiting fully from the upswing in global trade.
- The return of the structural deficit in services trade will cause net trade to weigh on GDP growth in 2022.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.
- The MPC won't hike Bank Rate until it has assessed the impact of the closure of the furlough scheme.
- It will have October's Labour Force Survey data to hand at its meeting on December 16...
- ...But that wouldn't allow time to prepare the public, as usual; February is the earliest practical lift-off date.
- Panic-buying of fuel likely will fade soon; no sign yet of shortage fears spreading to food or other goods...
- ...But for a period, people likely will reduce trips to purchase non-essential goods and services.
- The silver lining, however, has been a softening of the government's visa policies; probably more to come.
- The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
- Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
- GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.
- In one line: The start of a slowdown.
- We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
- Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
- ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.