Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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24 Nov 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Still Point to a Recession and Intense Price Pressures

  • S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
  • The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
  • Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, September

  •  In one line: House prices stalling in the face of surging mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

15 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Brace for an Above-Consensus CPI Inflation Print for October

  • We look for an above-consensus jump in CPI inflation to 10.9% in October, from 10.2% in September.
  • Food prices continued to rise quickly and energy prices soared; core CPI inflation likely remained high too.
  • The BRC’s non-food shop prices index leapt; services inflation likely was supported by education and rents.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, August

  • In one line:  Indicative of market conditions before mortgage rates took off. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, July

  • In one line:  July’s strength partially reflects base effects; near-term momentum will not be sustained.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Flash PMIs Suggest the Economy is Stagnant at Best

August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.

Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.

All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Aug 2022 UK Monitor How Much Longer Can Consumers Hold the Line?

Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.

October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...

...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, June

  • In one line:  Still too soon to see the damage from higher mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

4 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The Headwind from Mortgage Refinancing is Set to Intensify

The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages rose by only 11bp in H1, but will jump by 30bp in H2...

...and by a further 30bp over the course of 2023, if markets are right about the path for risk-free rates.

Firms still are very exposed to movements in short- rates; the transmission mechanism remains powerful.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, May

  • In one line:  Prices had momentum before the recent surge in mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 June 2022 June's Stable PMI Provides Little Reassurance on Q2 GDP

The composite PMI held steady at 53.1 in June, but it has been misleadingly upbeat in recent months.

It excludes the retail and public sectors, both of which will drag on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2.

We still forecast a 0.7% q/q drop in Q2 GDP, and only a 25bp increase in Bank Rate in August.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 June 2022 Core CPI inflation Already has Peaked and will Fall Rapidly in Early 2023

Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.

Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.

Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April

  • In one line:  Month-to-month gains are slowing, as higher mortgage rates bite.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

20 May 2022 The Start of a More Protracted Slowdown for House Price Growth?

Year-over-year growth in the official measure of house prices fell to 9.8% in March, from 11.3% in February.

Surging mortgage rates and falling real disposable incomes will cause house price growth to slow further.

We expect house prices to level off in H2, leaving the year-over-year rate at around 5% at the end of 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March

  • In one line:  The start of a more pronounced slowdown.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

16 May 2022 Net Upside Risk to the MPC's 9.1% Forecast for April CPI Inflation

CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.

BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...

...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence