Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Aug 2021 Will the MPC Finally Set Out its Views on the Lower Bound and Sequencing?

Now that negative rates are in the toolkit, the MPC might divulge its new estimate for the lower bound.
The MPC also might lower the threshold that Bank Rate must reach before it starts to wind down QE.
We expect Ofgem to announce on Friday that the default tariff cap will rise by a painful 13.5% in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2021 Rising Employment Won't Box the MPC into a Corner on Rates

It remains our view that employment and wages will not rise rapidly enough over the 18 months to prompt the MPC to hike Bank Rate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 May 2021 What will Follow Households' Summer Spending Spree?

Financial markets are relatively upbeat on the outlook for British retailers. The FTSE All-Share Retailers Index closed last week 27% above its 2019 average, greatly outperforming the total FTSE All- Share Index, which has only just recovered to its 2019 level.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 May 2021 Recovery Update: Now We're Sucking Diesel

Incoming data remain consistent with our above-consensus forecast that GDP will leap by about 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 May 2021 Is an Early General Election Likely, Once the FTPA has been Scrapped?

The Government's decision to set out plans in the Queen's Speech to scrap the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act has fanned speculation that Mr. Johnson wants to hold a general election before May 2024, the date specified by the Act.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Apr 2021 Why is the RPI-CPI Gap So Small When House Prices are Surging?

One of the current puzzles in the U.K. data is that March's RPI inflation rate, 1.5%, was only 0.8 percentage points above the rate of CPI inflation, even though the housing market is glowing hot.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Apr 2021 Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

The public finances picked up the strain from Covid-19 last year, but have come through the crisis in better shape than the OBR feared, even as recently as at last month's Budget.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Apr 2021 Sterling at Risk of Falling Further Over the Remainder of this Year

Sterling started 2021 on the front foot, rising to $1.41 in mid-February, from $1.37 at the end of last year.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Apr 2021 Economy Still on Course for a Post- Lockdown Recovery, but no Boom

The latest national accounts show that the U.K. economy remained the hardest hit in the G7 by Covid-19 in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Mar 2021 The Recovery in Retail Sales will Fall Flat, After the Q2 Upswing

The 2.1% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in February was mildly disappointing, following January’s huge 9.2% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Mar 2021 The Recovery Began in February, Well Before Restrictions were Lifted

A wide range of near-real-time indicators show that the economic recovery has resumed, well before Covid-19 restrictions have begun to be lifted.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Mar 2021 The Chancellor has Engineered a Soft Landing for the Housing Market

The near-term outlook for the housing market has improved following the Budget.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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