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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
Estimates of the distribution of savings can be derived by reconciling data from a few ONS surveys.
Our calculations suggest households in the top 10% of the income distribution hold 25% of the excess savings.
The current wave of rail strikes do not meaningfully increase the risk of a recession this year.
Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.
Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.
Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.
The near-term outlook for households' real disposable income looks bleak; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.
A recession, however, isn't our base case; people have ample scope to draw on savings and to borrow more.
We now Bank Rate to top out at 1.25% this year, not 1.00%, but still think markets have lost the plot.
The upward trend in the PAYE measure of employees is more plausible than the flat trend presented by the LFS.
Very strong survey indicators might reflect rising average hours and likely are insensitive to rising quits.
Employment growth looks set to slow from Q2, due to the rise in NICs and weaker demand.
House price growth was strong in Q1, but will now slow, due to rising mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
Several timely indicators of demand, including the RICS new buyer enquiries balance, are starting to soften.
House price growth looks set to slow to 4.5% this year, and mortgage approvals will fall to pre-Covid levels.
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