Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

income

1 July 2022 Most of Q1's Increase in GDP Likely was Reversed in Q2

The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.

The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.

A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 June 2022 New Estimates of the Distribution of Households' "Excess Savings"

Estimates of the distribution of savings can be derived by reconciling data from a few ONS surveys.

Our calculations suggest households in the top 10% of the income distribution hold 25% of the excess savings.

The current wave of rail strikes do not meaningfully increase the risk of a recession this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2022 Fresh Measures to Support Households are Coming Soon

Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.

Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.

Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 May 2022 Forecast Review, The Near-Term Outlook for GDP Has Worsened

The near-term outlook for households' real disposable income looks bleak; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.

A recession, however, isn't our base case; people have ample scope to draw on savings and to borrow more.

We now Bank Rate to top out at 1.25% this year, not 1.00%, but still think markets have lost the plot.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Apr 2022 Which of the Conflicting Indicators of Employment Should Be Believed?

The upward trend in the PAYE measure of employees is more plausible than the flat trend presented by the LFS.

Very strong survey indicators might reflect rising average hours and likely are insensitive to rising quits.

Employment growth looks set to slow from Q2, due to the rise in NICs and weaker demand.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

19 Apr 2022 The Recent Strength in House Price Growth Won't Last Much Longer

House price growth was strong in Q1, but will now slow, due to rising mortgage rates and falling real incomes.

Several timely indicators of demand, including the RICS new buyer enquiries balance, are starting to soften.

House price growth looks set to slow to 4.5% this year, and mortgage approvals will fall to pre-Covid levels.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

4 Apr 2022 Forecast Review: Rate Expectations Look Even More Out of Kilter

  • GDP is set to fall in Q2, as Covid-related government spending declines and real incomes drop sharply.
  • Energy prices currently point to CPI inflation rising to 8.5% in April, and returning to that level in October.
  • Markets have revised up their rate expectations, mistakenly overlooking key comments in the MPC's minutes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Mar 2022 Does the Plunge in Confidence Signal an Imminent Recession?

  • A recession has ensued on four of the five past times when consumers' confidence is as low as it is currently.
  • The outlook for households' real disposable income is ghastly; we now expect a 2.5% y/y drop in 2022...
  • ...But if employment keeps rising, people should be will- ing to draw on savings to maintain their real spending.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Mar 2022 Rising Interest Payments Explain Mr. Sunak's Expectations Management

  • Public borrowing in February exceeded the OBR's forecast by £5B; interest payments were partly to blame.
  • The OBR's forecast for interest payments in 2022/23 likely will rise by more than its forecast for tax receipts.
  • Mr. Sunak still can support households today, but he will prioritise retaining scope for pre-election tax cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Mar 2022 The Housing Market's Strong Start to the Year will Not Endure

  • House prices appear to have risen further in Q1, but timely data suggest that buyer demand now is cooling.
  • The outlook for rising mortgage rates, falling real incomes and low confidence does not bode well.
  • We expect year-over-year growth in house prices to slow from its current 10% rate to 3.5% by year-end.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

14 Mar 2022 GDP Likely to Dip in Q2, Despite Current Momentum

  • January's rebound should ensure GDP rises by nearly 1% q/q in Q1, far exceeding the MPC's expectations.
  • But Test & Trace and vaccination activities boosted GDP by 2% in January; this support soon will gone.
  • Q2 GDP also will be hit by the extra bank holiday and a sharp fall in real incomes; we look for a 0.2% q/q drop.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK 7 Mar 2022 Forecast Review: Brace for an 8% Double Peak in CPI Inflation

  • CPI inflation now is set to rise to 8% in April, and touch 8% again in October, due to the surge in energy prices. 
  • Low confidence implies households won't touch their savings much, so we have lowered our GDP forecast. 
  • Markets expect four more 25bp rate hikes this year, though we continue to expect only two. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Mar 2022 Gilt Yields Now Look Sensible, After Tuesday's Plunge

  • The 28bp drop in 10-year gilt yields on Tuesday was the largest daily decline since the E.U. referendum.
  • Yields fell the most for gilts held significantly by the BoE, suggesting investors are less sure QT will begin soon.
  • Don't fret about Russia's imploding economy; it absorbs just 1% of U.K. exports and 0.3% of overseas investment.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

28 Feb 2022 Markets Still Overestimating the Scope for Further Rate Hikes

  • Real household disposable income is set to drop by 2.0% this year, the most since the Second World War.
  • The Chancellor likely won't come to households' res- cue; debt interest and military spending is set to jump.
  • We have nudged down our GDP forecast and now expect it to be up only 1.5% year-over-year in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Feb 2022 The Economy will Stagnate if Energy Prices Stay this High

  • This week's surge in energy prices, if sustained, will boost the CPI by an extra 1.5 percentage points.
  • Households' real disposable incomes now are set to fall by about 2.2% this year, the most since WW2.
  • Below-trend GDP growth lies ahead, which will obviate the need for much higher interest rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Feb 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending is Starting to Flag

  • Retail sales in January were still 0.5% below their Q4 average, despite rising by nearly 2% from December.
  • Omicron weighed on sales at the start of the month, but the real income squeeze also is becoming a factor.
  • Households' real spending will rise further, as savings are drawn upon, but retailers don't stand to benefit.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Feb 2022 The Consensus for January Retail Sales is far too Low

  • We look for a 2.8% month-to-month jump in January retail sales volumes, more than double the consensus.
  • The BRC's figures look strong, even after adjusting for base effects and inflation.
  • Pay settlements have picked up in January by much less than the MPC feared earlier this month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Feb 2022 Labour Market Data Suggest the MPC Needn't Hike Aggressively

  • The labour market is tight on every measure, but employment growth is slowing and wages aren't soaring.
  • The first estimate of month-to-month growth in employee numbers in January was the lowest since April.
  • Wages will be supported by low unemployment, but undermined by higher taxes and slowing job moves.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Feb 2022 Will Households Spend More this Year, Despite Falling Real Incomes?

  • Real household disposable income looks set to drop by nearly 2% this year, the most since 1977...
  • ...But consumers can draw on the savings they amassed during the pandemic and borrow more.
  • We expect the saving ratio to fall to 4.5% in 2022—1.5pp below its pre-Covid level—so that spending rises further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Feb 2022 The Trade Deficit Will Widen this Year, Increasing Sterling's Vulnerability

  • The overall trade deficit will more than double in 2022, as the value of natural gas imports surges...
  • ...And the structural deficit in travel and transportation services gradually re-emerges.
  • Financial inflows will pick up too, supporting sterling, but another risk-off episode would hurt the pound.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence