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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
Domestic production accounts for nearly half of natural gas consumption, well above the European average.
Imports from Russia accounted for only 5% of the total; the U.K. has long-term deals with Norway and Qatar.
The bigger risk is that manufacturers are indirectly af- fected by rolling blackouts in other European countries.
OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.
The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.
Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.
The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.
Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.
We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.
Mr. Sunak's measures will boost households' nominal incomes in H2 by 2% and nominal GDP by about 0.7%.
The medium-term impact, however, will be small, and the package is so timely the MPC can't feasibly offset it.
So the outlook for Bank Rate hasn't changed radically; we now expect it to rise to 1.50%, not 1.25%, this year.
The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.
High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.
Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.
Firms want to hold more stocks than in the 2010s, but now are accumulating them at a slower pace.
GDP growth depends on the rate of change in inventories, so the deceleration will depress growth.
Futures prices historically have been a better guide to energy prices than assuming they don't change.
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