The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably...
...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same extent as its peers.
Brexit is one reason why we expect the recovery in GDP to slow as it approaches its pre-Covid level.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
With timely indicators suggesting that travel within the U.K. rather than abroad will prove popular over the summer, the domestic tourism sector looks set to receive a much-needed windfall.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
A superficial glance at the U.K.'s trade data suggests that the Brexit bullet has been miraculously dodged.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
February’s GDP report unsurprisingly showed that economic activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The latest national accounts show that the U.K. economy remained the hardest hit in the G7 by Covid-19 in Q4.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The trade balance has been very volatile over the last two years, primarily due to the impact of Covid-19 on supply chains and travel, as well as the disruption caused by Brexit.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The 2.9% month-to-month drop in GDP in
January was smaller than our 4.0% forecast and
the consensus, 4.9%.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
