Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2021 Brexit is Limiting Trade and will be a Key Constraint on the Recovery

On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably...
...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same extent as its peers.
Brexit is one reason why we expect the recovery in GDP to slow as it approaches its pre-Covid level.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2021 Households' Wealth hasn't Soared, Despite Recent Cash Hoarding

The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 June 2021 Will Domestic Tourism Limit the Slowdown in GDP growth in Q3?

With timely indicators suggesting that travel within the U.K. rather than abroad will prove popular over the summer, the domestic tourism sector looks set to receive a much-needed windfall. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 May 2021 Britain is Missing Out on the Global Trade Upswing, Due to Brexit

A superficial glance at the U.K.'s trade data suggests that the Brexit bullet has been miraculously dodged.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Apr 2021 The Economy Continued to Hibernate in February, But will Wake Up Soon

February’s GDP report unsurprisingly showed that economic activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Apr 2021 Economy Still on Course for a Post- Lockdown Recovery, but no Boom

The latest national accounts show that the U.K. economy remained the hardest hit in the G7 by Covid-19 in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Mar 2021 Big Trade Deficits Likely will Return Later this Year

The trade balance has been very volatile over the last two years, primarily due to the impact of Covid-19 on supply chains and travel, as well as the disruption caused by Brexit.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Mar 2021 GDP is Receiving a Shot in the Arm from Rising Healthcare Spending

The 2.9% month-to-month drop in GDP in
January was smaller than our 4.0% forecast and
the consensus, 4.9%. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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