Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

12 Nov 2020 The Boost to GDP from Post-Covid Dis-Saving will be Slow Burning

Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Oct 2020 Why Haven't Core Consumer Goods Prices Fallen Yet?

Higher core goods inflation is one of the main reasons why the headline rate of CPI inflation has exceeded economists' forecasts over the last few months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Jun 2020 13:00U.K.

12 June 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Took Another Big Step Towards Zero in May

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.4% in May, from 0.8% in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

29 Apr 2020 Would a Depreciation of Sterling be Stimulative this Time?

Sterling's shaky performance so far this year-- the trade-weighted index currently is 3% below its end-2019 level and was down 8% at the peak of the mid-March market...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Apr 2020 20:20U.K.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up?

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Feb 2020 13:00U.K.

17 Jan 2020 December's Retail Sales Report Will Dampen Rate Cut Speculation

The consensus forecast for a 0.6% month-to month rise in retail sales volumes in December--data released today--is far too timid.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

16 Jan 2020 CPI Inflation Will Rebound in Q1, Weakening the Case for Stimulus

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 jumped to 63%, from 44%, following the release of December's consumer prices report.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

15 Jan 2020 Will the Composite PMI Rise Enough to Keep the MPC on Hold?

Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have signalled that January's flash Markit/CIPS composite PMI, released on Friday 24, will have a major bearing on their policy...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

14 Jan 2020 Don't Read November's GDP Report in Isolation

Investors concluded too hastily yesterday that November's GDP report boosted the chances that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its upcoming meeting on January 30.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Jan 2020 Downside Risk to the Consensus for December's CPI Report

December's consumer prices report looks set to show that CPI inflation was stable at 1.5%--in line with the consensus--though the risks are skewed to the downside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2020 19:10U.K.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

16 Dec 2019 Has the Tories' Landslide Paved the Way for a Rate Hike Next Year?

Markets greatly cheered the Conservatives' landslide victory on Friday, but remained cautious on the potential for the MPC to return to the tightening cycle it started in 2017.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2019 19:10U.K.

13 Dec 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Hit Bottom in November, a Pick-Up Lies Ahead

Next week is so crammed full of data releases that we need to preview November's consumer price data early, in the eye of the storm of the general election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

12 Dec 2019 A Guide to the Drama on Election Night

Today's general election looks set to be a closer race than opinion polls suggested two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

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